The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official League of Traders Telegram channel.

Here are our notes for the first week of March!

1. Bitcoin Chart / Ethereum Chart

Bitcoin’s price now sits at $63,700, a sharp rise from last week’s $51,500. The current price is unlikely to be a long-term high, as analysts say the gains are led by institutional investors and that full-fledged participation by retail investors has yet to take place. However, this increase could serve as a short-term support point, as there have been large purchases of new wallets near $62,000. In the short term, we expect the price to move between Binance’s historic all-high of $69000 and its support of $62000 based on dollar-denominated prices.

BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)

Ethereum’s price has risen to $3483 this week from $3110 last week. As we said last week, it will likely continue strengthening for the time being, with the rise in crypto, in addition to the expected approval of the Ethereum ETF and the rapid network activities we are currently seeing. However, we should also be aware of the possibility of a short-term adjustment due to profit-taking sales, as it has been steadily rising for a month without any significant adjustments.

ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)

Last week Bitcoin dominance rose from 52.62% to 55%, and currently sits at 54%. Bitcoin dominance is also showing strength, as the inflow of funds generated by the spot ETF remains solid and the Bitcoin halfing approaches in April. However, Bitcoin Dominance is also likely to move sideways or down if it doesn’t break through, as there has been a tendency to stick around 51% — 55% since last December.

Bitcoin Dominance (TradingView)

2. Major Economic Indicators

• US Bond Yields

U.S. treasury rates are now at 4.201% after they edged up last week from 4.280% and subsequently fell. Bond markets reacted as the U.S. GDP fell short of forecasts while employment-related indicators, such as the number of new unemployment claims, worsened. Volatility in U.S. bond rates is likely to expand following Powell’s testimony from the Fed scheduled for this week.

U.S. Government Bonds 10-Year Yield (TradingView)

• U.S. Dollar Index

The U.S. dollar index is almost unchanged from last week’s 103.828 to this week’s 103.860. The dollar index is solid compared to U.S. bond rates. However, if U.S. bond rates fall any further or U.S. stocks, a representative dollar-denominated asset, are subject to adjustments, the dollar index may also have a potential increase in fluctuations.

U.S. Dollar Index (TradingView)

• US100 (Nasdaq100)

The drop in U.S. bond rates made it easier to break above 18000, which is a new high. However, it remains to be seen whether these strong gains will continue, as there are opinions that AI-related stocks such as NVIDIA, which has been leading gains since last year, have risen too much. Bloomberg has also announced that NVIDIA’s stock trend, a high-flying AI giant, may follow Tesla’s lead.

US100 (TradingView)

• Gold Futures

The price of gold futures rose from 2027 last week to 2080 this week. The decline in U.S. bond rates can be interpreted as a preference for an asset with low interest rates. Rising gold futures prices are likely to have a positive impact on the market as the price of gold is closely related to interest rates. The correlation has weakened recently, but before 2022, the rise of gold was often accompanied by the rise of bitcoin, also known as digital gold.

Gold Futures (TradingView)

3. Bitcoin Market Data

• MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z-score has increased significantly going from last week’s 1.95 to 2.66 this week. A figure of 2.66 represents an obvious entry into the superheated market when comparing the figures to graphs in 2010. However, when superheated peaks in the past, the interval of the MVRV Z-score is usually 6 or higher (the red zone in the image below), rendering it unlikely that the current figure is the last of the upswing.

• Indicator explanation: The MVRV Z-score is a measure that determines whether Bitcoin’s market cap is overvalued or undervalued by dividing the difference between Bitcoin’s market cap and realized cap by the standard deviation. If the MVRV Z-score is below 0, Bitcoin can be considered to be undervalued. In the overheated market that reached the All-Time High (ATH) in 2021, scores of 6 or higher were shown.

Bitcoin: MVRV Z Score — All time (Glassnode)

Bitcoin: MVRV Z Score-1y (Glassnode)

• aSOPR

The aSOPR rose to 1.17 from 1.025 last week and is now at 1.039. This indicates that the aSOPR has been steadily above 1, continuing a long-term upward trend. However, the fact that the aSOPR soared high to 1.17, and then came down, could be interpreted as a sign of a short-term correction, as it did in May of last year.

• aSOPR is short for Adjusted Spent Outfit Profit Ratio, a value obtained by dividing the price of received bitcoin in the past by the price at the time of transmission. When aSOPR is less than 1, it indicates a downtrend, and when it is above 1, it indicates an uptrend. aSOPR is a more accurate value that removes meaningless transactions within the hour for adjustments.

Bitcoin: Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)

• Open Interest

Bitcoin’s Exchange Aggregate Indefinite Futures Commitment (BITF) ****was the highest ever observed, rising significantly from $12.43B last week to $14.38B this week. As a high non-commitment of indefinite futures could indicate significant volatility we recommend caution. However, the estimated futures leverage ratio was rather down from 0.191 to 0.185. This could be attributed to the influx of new funds in the Bitcoin futures market, indicating that although there are high non-commitment agreements, there is room for more upside.

Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)

Combined estimated leverage ratio of exchanges (Glassnode)

4. On-chain data

• Exchange inflows and outflows

Bitcoin positions on exchanges are showing the largest outflows in the past year, expanding their outflow advantages. The large-scale movement of Bitcoin from exchanges to external wallets is interpreted as a sign that Bitcoin could rise further sooner rather than later.

Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change (Glassnode)

• Number of Whale Wallets

The number of whale wallets that own more than 10k Bitcoin has not changed much since last week. We can look at this as many of the whales with over 10k Bitcoin continuing their upward trend if the number of whale wallets is maintained even at the time of the current price hike.

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)

5. Last Week’s Major News

• StableCoin’s Cap Capitalization of $140 Billion… Highest Since December 2022

The upward rally in cryptocurrency is accelerating the expansion of the stablecoin market. According to DappRadar data on the 27th, the total market capitalization of stablecoins is at about $140 billion, the highest r December 2022. “Changes in stablecoin supply are a thermometer for whether money flows in or out of the crypto ecosystem,” said Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst at K33 Research. Also adding that the stablecoin market ended the 18-month decline and began expanding rapidly in November last year, with its market capitalization rising 12 % and most of that growth occurring earlier in the year.

• Bitcoin,won’t be at the top of the wons

Bitcoin reached its highest price on a domestic exchange in 28 months, exceeding $60,000. At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market data platform CoinMarketCap rose 6.81 percent to $60,0946. As a result, Bitcoin surpassed $60,000 for the first time since hitting a high of $69,045 in November 2021.

• Spot ETF Trading Volume Surges… Cryptocurrency Prices Lead

The daily trading volume of the Bitcoin Spot Exchange Fund (ETF) reached a new high of $7.7 billion. James Seyffart, an ETF analyst, said on X (Twitter) “The new record for Bitcoin ETF trading volume is officially 7.69 billion. Previous record was $4.66 billion from launch day”. According to Nasdaq data, BlackRock’s IBIT broke its trading volume record for three consecutive days, trading more than 96 million shares in a single day. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, went on to say that IBIT was the fourth most-traded ETF in the U.S., adding that IBIT would “trade more today than in its first two wks [weeks] combined. This is officially a craze.”

6. Major Economic Events

Major economic events last week

U.S. economic data released last week shows that the U.S. economy may be worse off than expected. In the fourth quarter, the U.S. GDP was expected to grow 3.3% but instead grew 3.2%. Additionally, new jobless claims topped forecasts, indicating that employment has been deteriorating. The bond market reacted and the U.S. 10-year interest rate reversed course, and the U.S. dollar index also weakened.

Major Economic Events for the 4th week of February 2024 (Investing.com)

This week’s major economic events

This week, keep an eye on Chairman FED Powell’s testimony and the Labor Department’s JOLTs (possession, turnover report). How Powell will interpret the recently released U.S. economic data is of importance, and if there are hints during the testimony about when to cut interest rates, markets may react sharply in response.

Major Economic Events for the first week of March 2024 (Investing.com)

Summary

Positive indicators: U.S. Bond Rates, Gold Prices, Estimated Futures Leverage Ratio, Exchange Inflows

Negative Indicators: MVRV Z-Score, Bitcoin Indefinite Futures Unsigned

Overall Review: Bitcoin’s price is overheating in the short term, and macroeconomic indicators such as U.S. bond rates are positive. Which indicates that Bitcoin-related indicators, such as Bitcoin inflow and outflow and estimated futures leverage ratio, could rise further. Therefore, the rally is expected to continue. It is highly likely to be a healthy adjustment even if there is a short-term adjustment due to the resolution of excessive undecided agreements, so it is recommended to use as a buying opportunity.