![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/1*0UyGmCSc0J4CM4fmFRjPLQ.png)

The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official [League of Traders Telegram channel](https://t.me/leagueoftraders_official).

Here are our notes for the second week of October!

 1. **Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart**

The price of Bitcoin has slightly declined, dropping from $63,300 last week to $62,900 this week. It experienced a sharp fall due to political instability in the Middle East but has since rebounded slightly. While there was an inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs last week, this has now shifted to a slight outflow. Bitcoin is approaching the resistance level of $64,000; if it breaks through, it could potentially rise to $70,000. However, if it declines, it is expected to find support around the $58,000 level.

![BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*o-_pza5gOLA43bvz.png)

![Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The block)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*X_PVgcjkIyE-26Fb.png)

Ethereum has also seen a decrease, falling from $2,600 last week to $2,460 this week. The supply of Ethereum has slightly increased due to rising network fees, reaching 120.38M. While Ethereum spot ETF outflows have stopped, its overall performance remains weaker compared to Bitcoin. Future price fluctuations will likely depend on the inflow of spot ETF funds and network fee burns.

![ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*KJxAWPRKobMTuD0c.png)

![Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The block)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*54J8efynOiYFOG3U.png)

![Ethereum Supply(y-chart)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*Qcw1pUQAoij_jtla.png)

Bitcoin dominance briefly rose above 58% last week and now sits at 58.02%. When Bitcoin’s price drops and dominance increases, it indicates that altcoins like Ethereum have fallen more sharply. If the crypto market remains weak, altcoins could experience greater declines, so caution is advised.

![Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*nbXYhmvYvJERl6ab.png)

**2. Major Economic Indicators**

* US Bond Yields

Last week, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged from 3.75% to 3.97% this week. Concerns over inflation, driven by rising oil prices due to instability in the Middle East and strong U.S. employment data, have surfaced. Some analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of interest rate cuts. However, as the broader trend toward interest rate cuts remains intact, interest rates are expected to weaken again in the near future.

![US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*1ZHrfPtD9XvPYO-i.png)

US Dollar Index

The U.S. dollar index also rose sharply alongside interest rates, reaching 102.490 this week. Since it often moves in tandem with interest rates, a worsening situation in the Middle East could push the dollar even higher, as it is viewed as a safe-haven asset.

![US Dollar Index (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*rCTZBuLM3BfijyRj.png)

US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The US100 index had a mixed performance last week, briefly dipping below the 20,000 mark before rebounding. Due to global uncertainty and concerns over the U.S. economy, profit-taking is occurring in major tech stocks such as Nvidia. In this context, the index is likely to move sideways or exhibit a weaker trend in the near term.

![US100 (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*Jn03GxkFxGw8tE-4.png)

Gold Futures

Gold futures reached a new historical high last week, rising to the mid-$2,600s per ounce, with the current price at $2,640. Unfortunately, it has been decoupling from Bitcoin. If Bitcoin aligns with gold and continues its rally, breaking through its all-time high, there is strong potential for further gains.

![Gold Futures (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*tK5KTR_lOBhMNZBN.png)

**3. Bitcoin Market Data**

* MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z Score increased slightly from 1.66 last week to 1.74 this week. If it surpasses 2, there is a strong chance of a rally towards Bitcoin’s all-time high.

* Indicator explanation: The MVRV Z-score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and its realized value, divided by the standard deviation. It serves as an indicator to assess whether Bitcoin’s market capitalization is overvalued or undervalued. A score below 0 suggests that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued, while a score of 6 or higher, as seen during the all-time high (ATH) in 2021, indicates an overheated market.

![Bitcoin: MVRV Z-Score(Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*vjVD2Kdaa1VRm6QG.png)

aSOPR

The aSOPR indicator rose from 0.999 last week to 1.014 this week. However, it is seen as a negative signal since it hasn’t sustained an upward trend, with weekly readings below 1. This suggests that market participants’ selling pressure remains strong.

*SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, is calculated by dividing the price at which Bitcoin was previously received by the price at the time of transfer. A SOPR below 1 indicates a bearish market, while a value above 1 indicates a bullish market. The aSOPR is an adjusted version that excludes short-term transactions (within one hour), providing a more accurate representation.

![Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*BuGilHDUjmRpgG4j.png)

Open Interest

Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures grew from $16.49B last week to $17.02B this week, while the estimated leverage ratio dipped slightly from 0.198 to 0.197.

Although the current levels — $18 billion in open interest and a leverage ratio of 0.210 — are associated with previous market corrections, the present figures are not yet at a critical level. However, any market adjustment could lead to increased liquidation activity, so caution is warranted.

![Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*AY3Tbcy_oKbP2P-4.png)

![Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*1ncM2jgsjbmepdi6.png)

**4. On-chain data**

* Exchange inflows and outflows

Bitcoin holdings on exchanges continue to decrease, which is a positive sign for the market. However, it’s crucial to monitor whether the outflows are moving into long-term holding wallets, as this shift could significantly influence the market’s long-term trend and investor sentiment.

![Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change(Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*VJswtunLNrkCmWCh.png)

Number of Whale Wallets

The number of whale wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC temporarily rebounded but has since declined again, which may be a negative signal. For Bitcoin to challenge its all-time high, this downward trend in whale wallets must reverse, and their movements are expected to have a significant impact on future prices.

![Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*MRSjK7QIOsLbb2tF.png)

**5. Last Week’s Major News**

* **Ethereum Transaction Fees Surge by 498% Due to Increased On-Chain Activity**

On the 30th (local time), Cointelegraph reported that Ethereum’s average gas fees skyrocketed by 498% compared to the monthly average between September 16 and 26, according to Coinbase’s weekly report. During this period, the median transaction cost jumped from $0.09 to $1.69. Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han attributed this spike in fees to a rise in on-chain activity. They noted that the surge in activity was not driven by a single cause but by multiple contributing factors.

* **Cryptocurrencies and U.S. Stocks Drop Amid Rising Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions**

On the morning of the 1st (local time), both the cryptocurrency and U.S. stock markets fell sharply, driven by a surge in oil prices and concerns over escalating military conflict in the Middle East. By 10:23 a.m. in New York, the S&P 500 index had dropped 1%, while the Nasdaq was down 1.6%. Bitcoin fell to $63,000, Ethereum dropped below $2,600, and the total cryptocurrency market cap decreased to $2.22 trillion. CNBC noted that the spike in oil prices, which rose by around 3%, was fueled by warnings from the U.S. government about an imminent Iranian attack on Israel.

* **U.S. Adds 250,000 Jobs, Unemployment Rate Drops to 4.1%**

The U.S. Department of Labor announced on the 4th that non-farm payrolls, including government agencies, added an impressive 254,000 jobs in September, far surpassing market expectations. This strong jobs report eased fears of a potential recession and concerns about a weakening labor market due to the Federal Reserve’s ongoing high-interest-rate policies. The job growth for August was also revised upward by 17,000, from 142,000 to 159,000, and an additional 55,000 jobs were reported in July, bringing the total to 144,000 for that month.

**6. Major economic events**

**Major economic events last week**

Last week, Chairman Powell’s speech and the release of employment data had a significant impact on this week’s market. In particular, the non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate showed strong results, signaling a robust recovery in the U.S. economy. These positive employment figures helped ease pressure on interest rates, which continued to rise as a result.

In Europe, although the consumer price index indicated slowing inflation, the manufacturing sector remains in contraction. Meanwhile, despite a notable increase in crude oil inventories, oil prices rose due to the instability in the Middle East stemming from the Israeli conflict.

As a result, both the U.S. dollar index and interest rates strengthened. This market environment reinforced the perception of virtual assets as high-risk, negatively impacting Bitcoin’s price.

![Major Economic Events for the 1st week of October 2024 (Investing.com)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*K41SOK031pKlrG1I.png)

**This week’s major economic events**

This week, attention should be focused on the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes and the U.S. price index. If the price index stabilizes and interest rates trend downward again, we may see a positive shift in asset markets, including virtual assets.

On the other hand, if inflation remains unstable or recessionary signals emerge, the overall asset market may struggle. Therefore, it’s crucial to closely monitor the economic data set to be released this week.

![Major Economic Events for the 2nd week of October 2024 (Investing.com)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*DVEVlhS3e-P0DV6j.png)

**Summary**

**Positive indicators**: Gold futures prices, exchange inflows/outflows

**Negative indicators**: U.S. bond yields, U.S. dollar index, aSOPR, whale wallet activity

**Overall**: Last week, the asset markets declined sharply due to the ongoing war in the Middle East and have not yet reversed the downward trend. Given the uncertainty surrounding U.S. interest rates this week, it may be wise to take a cautious approach. Be prudent with trading and keep a close watch on market developments.