![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/1*NCqUIW-MJGQMwL2iV6-58A.png)

The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official [League of Traders Telegram channel](https://t.me/leagueoftraders_official).

Here are our notes for the third week of October!

 1. **Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart**

The price of Bitcoin increased from $62,900 last week to $64,400 this week. Bitcoin spot ETFs, particularly from BlackRock and Fidelity, have experienced a combined inflow of over $200 million, continuing an upward trend that began in early September. Should Bitcoin break through the $68,000 mark in the short term, it may challenge its previous high. However, if a correction occurs due to heightened risk factors, support would likely be around the $58,000 level.

![BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*IqnnBS74BkLjRymC.png)

![Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The block)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*zMpBoS2Cf_xRRL7x.png)

Ethereum saw a modest price increase, rising from $2,460 last week to over $2,500 this week. The inflow and outflow of Ethereum spot ETFs remained minimal, while the supply growth slowed to 120.38M, staying consistent with last week’s levels. As Ethereum’s on-chain activity and fees have increased, its inflation rate has decreased, marking a positive long-term shift.

![ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*TnP7wY7stCDLAZWM.png)

![Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The block)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*f7gAevpvTtsw23Kl.png)

![Ethereum Supply (y-chart)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*JIOXfv1W1zJ4CuYw.png)

Bitcoin dominance has edged up slightly, from 58.02% last week to 58.13% this week. With both Bitcoin and altcoins showing gains, there is potential for a significant surge in Bitcoin dominance if a full-scale Bitcoin rally takes off.

![Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*4UhdfOLj4mDIF7XV.png)

**2. Major Economic Indicators**

* US Bond Yields

Last week, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose from 3.97% to 4.10%, surpassing the 4% threshold. This increase was primarily driven by the announcement of a higher-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). While interest rates have risen sharply in the short term, their future trajectory will largely depend on the U.S. economic outlook. If the economy does not improve rapidly, the trend toward interest rate cuts is likely to persist.

![US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*mqmJnTesjL9vhMQp.png)

* US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index saw a slight increase, rising from 102.915 last week to 102.996 this week, mirroring movements in U.S. Treasury yields. Throughout the third and fourth quarters, the Dollar Index is expected to fluctuate in tandem with the yen and gold prices. Given that the yen and gold are anticipated to remain relatively strong, it may be difficult for the Dollar Index to continue its upward trend.

![US Dollar Index (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*vrGehOrtka-N6F_i.png)

* US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The US100 index experienced a moderate rise last week, increasing from 20,000 to 20,200. The primary catalyst was Nvidia’s resurgence to its all-time high, closing at $138.07, a gain of 2.43%. This was fueled by optimism around its new AI chip, “Blackwell,” which is slated for mass production this quarter. Additional gains from Apple and Alphabet also contributed to the index’s rise.

![US100 (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*skNc4Ra4QWbwXpaR.png)

* Gold Futures

Last week, gold futures prices temporarily declined in response to rising interest rates but rebounded to $2,650 per ounce. Gold is once again attempting to surpass its all-time high and has maintained its value relatively well despite the sharp increase in U.S. bond yields. This resilience raises the likelihood that gold could break its record high and continue its upward momentum.

![Gold Futures (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*aH9vMR5DlJAVo_x-.png)

3. **Bitcoin** Market Data

* MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z-Score increased slightly from 1.74 last week to 1.92 this week. If this indicator surpasses 2, Bitcoin is likely to make further attempts to break its all-time high, warranting close monitoring. The current trend appears favorable, suggesting the possibility of continued upward momentum.

* Indicator explanation: The MVRV Z-score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and its realized value, divided by the standard deviation. It serves as an indicator to assess whether Bitcoin’s market capitalization is overvalued or undervalued. A score below 0 suggests that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued, while a score of 6 or higher, as seen during the all-time high (ATH) in 2021, indicates an overheated market.

![Bitcoin: MVRV Z Score (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*UDeP6wDzxOUl_NmG.png)

* aSOPR

The aSOPR indicator also rose, going from 1.014 last week to 1.030 this week. However, it exhibited volatility, spiking to 1.135 mid-week before dropping to 0.985. Since sharp changes in the aSOPR indicator often precede increased price volatility, caution is advised to manage heightened risk.

*SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, is calculated by dividing the price at which Bitcoin was previously received by the price at the time of transfer. A SOPR below 1 indicates a bearish market, while a value above 1 indicates a bullish market. The aSOPR is an adjusted version that excludes short-term transactions (within one hour), providing a more accurate representation.

![Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*SgpO6u2uPlVMSZLn.png)

* Open Interest

Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures saw a significant jump, rising from $17.02 billion last week to $18.72 billion. The estimated leverage ratio for perpetual futures also increased from 0.197 to 0.206. The open interest level, which has caused substantial market fluctuations in the latter half of this year, now exceeds $18 billion, and the leverage ratio is approaching 0.210. This combination indicates that significant price volatility may be on the horizon.

The most favorable scenario would be an increase in open interest alongside an inflow of new capital, which could drive prices higher while reducing the estimated leverage ratio. Once open interest and the leverage ratio decouple, a large price surge could ensue.

Although the current levels — $18 billion in open interest and a leverage ratio of 0.210 — are associated with previous market corrections, the present figures are not yet at a critical level. However, any market adjustment could lead to increased liquidation activity, so caution is warranted.

![Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*FZ3zui6zXS0YxrTb.png)

![Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*QOsdJz3GGYnd5BeK.png)

**4. On-chain data**

* Exchange inflows and outflows

While Bitcoin’s net outflow from exchanges has continued, the rate of outflow has slowed. A steady outflow has been observed over the past two months, and historically, such outflow periods have often been followed by upward price trends. This suggests that the current outflow could act as a catalyst for a potential rally in Q4.

![Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change(Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*y2JP9PepIhLAUgjd.png)

* Number of Whale Wallets

The number of whale wallets holding over 10,000 BTC dropped significantly and has only slightly rebounded from recent lows. Despite this minor recovery, the overall trend remains negative. If this downtrend persists, Bitcoin may face challenges in breaking through its all-time high.

![Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*1TX3Ev8gY6JXUxC4.png)

**5. Last Week’s Major News**

* **Musk: “Polymarket Predictions with Money at Stake Are More Accurate than Polls” — Trump Leads Harris by 3%**

A debate is emerging in the U.S. presidential election prediction market, suggesting that prediction markets may offer more accuracy than traditional polls. Elon Musk recently highlighted Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, stating, “Prediction markets are more accurate because real money is at stake.” According to *Cointelegraph* on October 7, Musk expressed this view on his social media platform X. Musk has recently increased his support for Republican candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump.

* **Cryptocurrency Funds See Net Inflow of $407 Million Last Week, Reflecting US Election Expectations**

Global cryptocurrency investment products saw net inflows exceeding $400 million last week as expectations surrounding the upcoming U.S. election improved market sentiment. According to the *CoinShares* weekly report on October 14, cryptocurrency funds recorded a positive inflow of $407 million for the week ending October 11.

* **Plummeting International Oil Prices as Demand Slows and Fears of Iranian Oil Facility Strikes Decrease**

International oil prices have experienced a sharp decline due to a slowdown in demand forecasts and reduced concerns over potential Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities. According to *Bloomberg* and *Reuters* on October 14, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.73 (2.29%), closing at $73.83 per barrel. This drop was influenced by disappointment over China’s economic stimulus measures and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)’s downward revision of its demand growth forecast.

**6. Major economic events**

**Major economic events last week**

Last week, despite a rise in interest rates driven by elevated inflation indicators, asset markets performed well. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 index reached a new all-time high, while gold prices are approaching their record highs. This reflects a positive investment sentiment across markets, suggesting that virtual assets may continue to follow the upward trends seen in U.S. equities and gold. This could serve as an encouraging signal for market participants.

![Major Economic Events for the 2nd week of October 2024 (Investing.com)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*i9Agh4weppvELtbE.png)

* **This week’s major economic events**

Key events this week include the European interest rate decision and the U.S. release of new unemployment benefit claims. If these events align with expectations, the positive trend in asset markets is likely to persist. However, if the data deviates significantly from forecasts, caution should be exercised due to potential risks.

![Major Economic Events for the 3rd week of October 2024 (Investing.com)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*lgm5MZ1oSeFBEwXI.png)

**Summary**

**Positive Indicators:** Inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, Ethereum supply, Gold futures, Exchange inflows and outflows

**Negative Indicators:** U.S. Treasury yields, U.S. Dollar Index, Number of whale wallets holding Bitcoin

**Overall Outlook:** While the aSOPR and the size of outstanding contracts suggest the potential for increased volatility, the broader market sentiment remains positive, as evidenced by the performance of the Nasdaq 100 and gold futures. If Bitcoin’s upward trend continues, it may be wise to follow the momentum and participate in the rally.

Key inflection point: heightened uncertainty, may be better to wait and see — 3rd week of October 2024

League of Traders EN

Key inflection point: heightened uncertainty, may be better to wait and see — 3rd week of October 2024.  The Weekly Report is our summary of key indic...