The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official League of Traders Telegram channel.

Here are our notes for the fourth week of November!

1. Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart

Bitcoin (BTC) commenced last week at $90,000 and surged to a peak of $99,588, exhibiting robust upward momentum. Currently trading near $97,500, it stands on the verge of surpassing the psychological resistance level of $100,000. While short-term corrections driven by profit-taking are possible, the prevailing bullish momentum is expected to remain intact.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed a notable shift in fund flows, turning positive after observing minor outflows last week. Renewed inflows this week send a strong bullish signal, underscoring sustained interest from institutional investors — an encouraging indicator for Bitcoin’s stable and continued growth trajectory.

BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The block)

Ethereum (ETH) also demonstrated significant movement, climbing from $3,117 to a high of $3,497 before stabilizing near $3,342. However, Ethereum’s market share has declined to 12%, with the ETH/BTC ratio falling to its lowest level since April 2021.

Despite initial optimism surrounding the introduction of spot Ethereum ETFs, Ethereum has struggled to reclaim its pre-launch highs. This reflects a more subdued market response than anticipated, leaving Ethereum relatively underperforming compared to Bitcoin. In the short term, Ethereum’s price dynamics will likely align closely with Bitcoin’s. However, its continued decline in market dominance raises the prospect of additional downside risks.

ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The block)

Bitcoin’s dominance rose from 60.04% to over 61% before retreating to 59.42%, reflecting a temporary slowdown in Bitcoin’s rally as it approached critical resistance levels. This pause allowed altcoins to exhibit relative strength.

The recent altcoin rally points to a short-term capital rotation during Bitcoin’s consolidation phase. However, a prolonged decline in Bitcoin dominance could signal heightened systemic market risk. While a cyclical uptick in altcoins may persist in the near term, Bitcoin’s trajectory will likely remain the primary determinant of the broader market’s direction.

Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)

2. Major Economic Indicators

• US Bond Yields

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond eased slightly last week, falling from 4.43% to 4.35%. This stabilization is interpreted as a pause following the sharp rise in market rates triggered by President Trump’s election. While declining yields may signal positivity for asset markets, the persistence of inflation concerns casts uncertainty on whether this downward trend can continue. Upcoming economic indicators and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping yield movements.

US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)

• US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed from 106.583 to 106.848 last week despite the slight drop in Treasury yields. This reflects robust confidence in the U.S. economy and heightened expectations of a strong dollar following President Trump’s election victory.

US Dollar Index (TradingView)

• US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The US100 index showed a modest recovery, rising from 20,529 to 20,882 over the week. However, the sustainability of this rebound remains uncertain, with the direction of U.S. interest rate policy likely to serve as a critical determinant moving forward.

US100 (TradingView)

• Gold Futures

Gold futures reversed their recent downtrend, climbing from $2,578 to $2,695 per ounce. Following a decline after the U.S. election, this recovery reflects renewed market concerns about economic uncertainty, leading investors to favor safe-haven assets again.

Gold Futures (TradingView)

3. Bitcoin Market Data

• MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z-Score rose from 3.02 to a peak of 3.42 last week before settling at 3.33. While this suggests an intensifying overbought condition, the metric remains below levels historically associated with cycle peaks. This leaves room for further market upside, but warrants caution as signs of overheating grow.

• Indicator explanation: The MVRV Z-score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and its realized value, divided by the standard deviation. It serves as an indicator to assess whether Bitcoin’s market capitalization is overvalued or undervalued. A score below 0 suggests that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued, while a score of 6 or higher, as seen during the all-time high (ATH) in 2021, indicates an overheated market.

Bitcoin: MVRV Z-Score(Glassnode)

• aSOPR

The aSOPR indicator peaked at 1.149 after starting the week at 1.098 and has since edged down to 1.049. While the metric remains above 1, signaling a continued upward trend, temporary spikes above 1.1 in the past have often coincided with significant market volatility, underscoring the need for vigilance.

• SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, is calculated by dividing the price at which Bitcoin was previously received by the price at the time of transfer. A SOPR below 1 indicates a bearish market, while a value above 1 indicates a bullish market. The aSOPR is an adjusted version that excludes short-term transactions (within one hour), providing a more accurate representation.

Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)

• Open Interest

Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures increased from $25.56 billion to $29.35 billion last week and currently sits at $28.95 billion. The estimated leverage ratio rose from 0.214 to 0.229, settling at 0.227 — an all-time high. This indicates substantial capital inflows into the futures market but also suggests a heightened risk of volatility should a correction occur, given the elevated use of leverage.

Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)

Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)

4. On-chain data

• Exchange inflows and outflows

Bitcoin’s net outflows from exchanges continued last week, with outflows accelerating. This aligns with capital inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs. Persistent exchange outflows could lead to a supply shortage, potentially supporting upward price momentum.

Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change(Glassnode)

• Number of Whale Wallets

Conversely, the number of whale wallets holding at least 10,000 BTC has steadily declined over the past six months. Last week also saw a drop in wallets holding over 1,000 BTC. If these movements represent profit-taking, a strategic approach to mitigate potential downside risks may be warranted.

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1K or more (Glassnode)

5. Last Week’s Major News

• Arthur Hayes Predicts $250K Bitcoin by Late 2025, DOGE to Hit $1 Soon

According to a report by U.Today on November 24, Arthur Hayes shared his optimistic outlook for Dogecoin (DOGE) during a podcast, suggesting it could reach $1 in the near term. Hayes’ bullish predictions are based on global economic trends and evolving monetary policies. He highlighted that continued U.S. economic stimulus measures will likely sustain inflation, driving increased attention toward Bitcoin as an alternative to traditional financial assets.

• Altcoin Season on the Horizon: Positive Signals Emerging

The crypto market is showing signs of an impending “altcoin season,” characterized by significant price surges among altcoins as investors shift focus from Bitcoin to alternative cryptocurrencies. Recent market indicators suggest that such a transition may already be underway, bolstering expectations for a period of rapid growth in the altcoin sector.

• Robinhood Set to Benefit from Crypto Regulatory Easing, Price Target Raised to $51

On November 20, CoinDesk reported that Bernstein had identified Robinhood as a major beneficiary of potential pro-crypto regulatory policies under the Trump administration’s SEC. In its latest report, Bernstein raised Robinhood’s price target from $30 to $51 while maintaining an “outperform” rating. Following the news, Robinhood’s stock surged over 5% at the opening of the New York Stock Exchange, reaching above $37. This upward revision reflects anticipation of Robinhood capitalizing on a favorable regulatory environment, potentially driving significant growth in its crypto trading segment.

6. Major Economic Events

Major economic events last week

The European Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed signs of stabilization, while initial jobless claims in the U.S. came in below forecasts. Additionally, existing home sales exceeded expectations, further underscoring the resilience of the U.S. economy.

Major Economic Events for the 3rd week of November 2024 (Investing.com)

This week’s major economic events

This week, the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes will be a key event, potentially providing insights into future interest rate policies. As the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday approaches, market volatility may increase, warranting heightened caution.

Major Economic Events for the 4th week of November 2024 (Investing.com)

Summary

Positive: Bitcoin Spot ETF Inflows, MVRV Z-Score, aSOPR

Negative: U.S. Dollar Index, Open Interest in Perpetual Futures, Estimated Leverage Ratio

Market Outlook: Bitcoin continues its robust rally, breaking all-time highs and serving as the centerpiece of the current bull market. This upward momentum has invigorated the broader cryptocurrency market, with altcoins also experiencing strong gains. While the probability of a significant correction appears low, caution is advised due to record-high open interest and leverage ratios in the futures market, which signal potential overheating. Investors should prepare for short-term adjustments driven by the unwinding of open positions. A balanced strategy focusing on holding Bitcoin, alongside selectively accumulating undervalued altcoins, is likely to be advantageous in navigating the current market dynamics.