The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official League of Traders Telegram channel.

Here are our notes for the third week of December!

1. Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart

Bitcoin (BTC) continued its upward momentum, rising from $99,600 last week to reach a new all-time high of $106,500. Having firmly surpassed the $100,000 milestone, the charts suggest that the rally may persist for the foreseeable future. In the event of a correction, the $94,000 level, where a rebound occurred earlier this week, is expected to serve as a key support level. Furthermore, consistent inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs are anticipated to have a positive impact on Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory.

BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The block)

Ethereum (ETH) rebounded from last week’s $3,953 to $3,994, reversing earlier losses and showing signs of renewed strength. While Ethereum had underperformed compared to Bitcoin’s new all-time high, bullish sentiment is gaining traction again. According to on-chain analytics platform Santiment, as of the 17th, there are 104 wallets holding 100,000 ETH or more, collectively accounting for 57.35% of Ethereum’s total supply (approximately $333.1 billion in value).

Sustained capital inflows into Ethereum spot ETFs further bolster the bullish outlook. However, concerns persist regarding whether Ethereum can generate sufficient long-term demand to offset its ongoing inflationary nature.

ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The block)

Bitcoin dominance has rebounded as expected, increasing from 55.40% last week to 57.20%. With Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 threshold and setting new highs, altcoins have seen relatively modest gains. However, given Bitcoin’s elevated price levels, a catch-up phase for altcoins may emerge, potentially leading to either stability or a slight decline in Bitcoin dominance.

Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)

2. Major Economic Indicators

• US Bond Yields

Last week, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.13% to 4.39%. While the market consensus for this week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision leans toward a -0.25% rate cut, market sentiment continues to reflect confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy and persistent concerns about elevated inflation levels. As a result, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate announcement could significantly heighten market volatility.

US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)

• US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose from 106.045 last week to 106.871, continuing its upward momentum. With both the U.S. and Japan set to announce policy rate decisions this week, fluctuations in the DXY are expected depending on the interest rate direction of the two economies. Market sentiment is likely to remain mixed.

US Dollar Index (TradingView)

• US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The US100 index climbed from 21,607 last week to 21,784, once again reaching an all-time high. The U.S. stock market, particularly the Nasdaq, remains strong. However, uncertainties surrounding interest rate policies and the current price-to-asset ratio at levels unseen since the early 2000s tech bubble warrant a cautious assessment of potential market bubbles.

US100 (TradingView)

• Gold Futures

Gold futures prices hovered at $2,644 per ounce last week, showing little movement. If a U.S. policy rate cut is confirmed, a rebound in gold prices is possible. However, with Chinese policy banks slowing their gold purchases — a key driver of gold price increases in Q3 — the prospects for further price hikes remain uncertain.

Gold Futures (TradingView)

3. Bitcoin Market Data

• MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z-score rose from 3.35 last week to 3.49, maintaining an overheated state. While the score mirrors levels seen during April’s correction this year, it remains below the peak values observed during the current cycle, suggesting that the market has not yet reached its top.

• Indicator explanation: The MVRV Z-score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and its realized value, divided by the standard deviation. It serves as an indicator to assess whether Bitcoin’s market capitalization is overvalued or undervalued. A score below 0 suggests that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued, while a score of 6 or higher, as seen during the all-time high (ATH) in 2021, indicates an overheated market.

Bitcoin: MVRV Z Score(Glassnode)

• aSOPR

The aSOPR rose from 1.038 last week to 1.076 this week. With daily values staying above 1, the indicator confirms that Bitcoin’s upward trend is intact.

• SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, is calculated by dividing the price at which Bitcoin was previously received by the price at the time of transfer. A SOPR below 1 indicates a bearish market, while a value above 1 indicates a bullish market. The aSOPR is an adjusted version that excludes short-term transactions (within one hour), providing a more accurate representation.

Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)

• Open Interest

Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures increased from $28.86 billion last week to $30.72 billion this week, setting a new record. The estimated leverage ratio also rose from 0.217 to 0.226, indicating that risk levels in the futures market remain high relative to capital inflows. This heightened leverage suggests that macroeconomic policy shifts, such as this week’s U.S. rate decision, could trigger forced liquidations, increasing market volatility.

Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)

Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)

4. On-chain data

• Exchange inflows and outflows

The trend of net Bitcoin outflows from exchanges continues, aligning with consistent inflows into spot ETFs. This has created a favorable environment for Bitcoin prices, as the decline in exchange-held Bitcoin has exacerbated supply shortages, further supporting spot market dynamics.

Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change(Glassnode)

• Number of Whale Wallets

The number of wallets holding over 10,000 BTC has stabilized, while wallets holding 1,000 BTC or more have shown a sharp increase, driving the Bitcoin rally. A continued rise in 1,000+ BTC wallets and a rebound in 10,000+ BTC wallets could further strengthen Bitcoin’s bullish momentum. However, a significant increase in whale wallet counts during a price rally might signal the approach of a market cycle peak, warranting caution.

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1K or more (Glassnode)

5. Last Week’s Major News

• Yoon Suk-yeol Impeached, South Korean Presidential Authority Suspended

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s presidential powers were suspended on December 14, following the passage of an impeachment motion in the National Assembly. Once the impeachment resolution is officially delivered to the Presidential Office, Yoon’s duties and authority as president will be immediately halted.

• Strike CEO: “Trump to Initiate Bitcoin Reserves on Day One”

Jack Mallers, CEO of Strike, discussed President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to build U.S. Bitcoin reserves. According to a report by NewsBitcoin on December 15, the initiative is expected to be launched via executive order on Trump’s first day in office.

• Binance Attracts $240 Billion in Net Inflows This Year: Institutional Participation Drives Growth

Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, reported $242 billion in net inflows this year. On December 12, Cointelegraph cited DeFi Llama data, noting that Binance’s user deposits in 2025 are projected to surpass the combined total of over 10 other centralized exchanges (CEX).

6. Major economic events

Major economic events last week

Last week, the Eurozone’s policy interest rate fell by 25 basis points as expected, resulting in relatively stable market growth. Meanwhile, the decline in crude oil inventories slightly exceeded forecasts, but the difference was not significant. However, the U.S. monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.4%, reigniting concerns about inflation. This development could have implications for future monetary policy and the broader economy.

Major Economic Events for the 2nd week of December 2024 (Investing.com)

This week’s major economic events

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is the headline event. Market consensus anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut. However, with the U.S. economy remaining robust and inflation fears persisting, a potential delay in rate cuts could negatively impact equity and asset markets.

Major Economic Events for the 3rd week of December 2024 (Investing.com)

Summary

Positive Indicators:

• Inflows into cryptocurrency spot ETFs

• Rising aSOPR values

• Increasing number of wallets holding over 1,000 BTC

Negative Indicators:

• Rising U.S. bond yields

• Excessive open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures

Market Outlook: Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory after setting a new all-time high, supported by favorable developments like the Trump administration’s Bitcoin reserve strategy. The surge in Bitcoin is likely to drive altcoin price growth as well. With spot ETF inflows and strong aSOPR metrics, the crypto market remains in a bullish phase. However, the high level of open interest in perpetual futures and the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision could introduce short-term volatility. In the event of a market correction, adopting a “Buy the Dip” strategy may offer profitable opportunities.