The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official League of Traders Telegram channel.

Here are our notes for the first week of January!

1. Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart

Bitcoin rose from $93,857 last week to $99,220 this week, showing a potential rebound as it approaches the $100K milestone with the new year. However, Bitcoin spot ETF funds have turned to outflows. Specifically, $332.6M was withdrawn from BlackRock’s IBIT, with a total of $355.7M leaving on Friday alone. Considering BlackRock’s historical influence on price movements, cautious optimism toward further increase is advised.

That said, the upcoming inauguration of pro-crypto President Trump is seen as a positive signal. Until the event, favorable developments driven by market optimism are more likely than significant corrections.

BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The block)

Ethereum increased from $3,423 last week to $3,675 this week, maintaining its bullish trend after a rebound. A Steno Research report forecasts that “Ethereum is likely to outperform Bitcoin next year” and projects Ethereum could more than double from $3,400 to $8,000. However, like Bitcoin, Ethereum spot ETFs have also turned to outflows. While the current outflow volume remains small, monitoring the trend’s continuation is essential.

ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The block)

Bitcoin dominance dipped from 57.65% last week to 56.99% this week. While Bitcoin is on the rebound, altcoins have shown even stronger upward momentum. If this trend continues, altcoins could hold their relative strength during upswings but may face sharper corrections during downturns. Investors should stay mindful of the volatility.

Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)

2. Major Economic Indicators

• US Bond Yields

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield inched up from 4.623% last week to 4.624% this week. While the rise in interest rates seems to be slowing, persistent concerns from U.S. inflation indicators have fueled doubts about potential rate cuts. The release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes this week could introduce fresh volatility to market interest rates.

US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)

• US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose from 107.985 last week to 108.858 this week, maintaining its strength. The dollar continues to align with interest rate movements, and this trend is expected to persist until incoming President Trump’s inauguration on the 20th.

US Dollar Index (TradingView)

• US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The US100 index slipped from 21,470 last week to 21,319 this week, indicating a correction. Rising market interest rates seem to be limiting upward momentum. Despite this, the index remains at elevated levels, and with few global markets offering comparable stable growth, substantial short-term capital outflows from the U.S. appear unlikely.

US100 (TradingView)

• Gold Futures

Gold futures edged up from $2,625 per ounce last week to $2,642 this week but remain range-bound. If U.S. interest rates keep climbing, gold prices could face downward pressure, making interest rate trends crucial to watch.

Gold Futures (TradingView)

3. Bitcoin Market Data

• MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z-Score rose slightly from 2.71 to 2.91. If the score climbs significantly above 3, signaling an overbought range, Bitcoin could see another rally to challenge its all-time high.

• Indicator explanation: The MVRV Z-score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and its realized value, divided by the standard deviation. It serves as an indicator to assess whether Bitcoin’s market capitalization is overvalued or undervalued. A score below 0 suggests that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued, while a score of 6 or higher, as seen during the all-time high (ATH) in 2021, indicates an overheated market.

Bitcoin: MVRV Z Score(Glassnode)

• aSOPR

The aSOPR dropped slightly from 1.045 to 1.016 but remains above 1, signaling that the market is still in an uptrend. If this metric falls below 1, it could indicate the onset of a downtrend, requiring close monitoring.

• SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, is calculated by dividing the price at which Bitcoin was previously received by the price at the time of transfer. A SOPR below 1 indicates a bearish market, while a value above 1 indicates a bullish market. The aSOPR is an adjusted version that excludes short-term transactions (within one hour), providing a more accurate representation.

Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)

• Open Interest

The open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures increased slightly from $27.10B last week to $28.01B this week. Meanwhile, the estimated leverage ratio dropped from 0.219 to 0.216, indicating inflows into perpetual futures markets. While market optimism is evident with the new year, the high leverage levels could amplify volatility during corrections, warranting caution.

Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)

Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)

4. On-chain data

• Exchange inflows and outflows

Bitcoin’s net outflows from exchanges persist, although the outflow amount is gradually decreasing. If this trend continues alongside Bitcoin’s upward trajectory, supply shortages could emerge, potentially driving prices higher. This current outflow trend is considered a positive signal for Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change (Glassnode)

• Number of Whale Wallets

The number of wallets holding over 10K BTC has stabilized after a decline, while wallets holding over 1K BTC have slightly increased. This halt in the decline of large wallets, coupled with a minor rebound, suggests a potential trend reversal and is viewed as a positive signal.

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1K or more (Glassnode)

5. Last Week’s Major News

• Binance Labs’ 2025 Key Investment Areas: Crypto, AI, and Biotech

Binance Labs, the investment arm of Binance, has wrapped up its 2024 investment activities and outlined its key focus areas and market outlook for 2025. According to a December 31 report, Binance Labs will prioritize investments in cryptocurrency and blockchain, artificial intelligence (AI), and biotechnology (biotech) as its three main domains. The organization also highlighted its strong expectations for breakthroughs at the intersections of these fields.

• Stablecoin Market Surpasses $205 Billion, Attracting Investments from Traditional Companies

The stablecoin market has grown to an estimated valuation of $205 billion, attracting attention from major traditional companies such as Visa, PayPal, Stripe, and Revolut. According to a December 31 report by Crypto-Economy, stablecoins — designed to maintain a value pegged to fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar — are gaining traction as a more stable alternative to highly volatile cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

• BeInCrypto Highlights 3 Key Crypto Trends: AI, Perpetual Contracts, and Trading Bots

BeInCrypto reported on December 30 that the three key topics to watch in the cryptocurrency market this week are artificial intelligence (AI), perpetual contracts, and trading bots. AI-focused tokens like TAO and FET saw gains of 61% and 71%, respectively, while VIRTUAL reached a market cap of $3.3 billion, making it the second-largest AI token. Perpetual contracts are also gaining momentum, with Hyperliquid recording $98 billion in weekly DEX trading volume, and the HYPE token entering the top 20 cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, trading bots like Trojan, Banana, and Bonkbot saw weekly trading volumes in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Tokens such as BANANA and BONK could see further gains if the trend continues.

6. Major economic events

Major economic events last week

Major economic events last week showed that inflation remains elevated in the U.S. Notably, initial jobless claims were 11K lower than expected, signaling continued strength in the labor market. Additionally, both the December Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the ISM Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, further intensifying concerns about inflation.

Major Economic Events for the 1st week of January 2025 (Investing.com)

This week’s major economic events

This week marks the official start of the new year’s economy, with key economic indicators set to be released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Eurozone and the publication of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes are expected to shape market expectations and influence the direction of interest rates. Additionally, the release of Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data and the unemployment rate will provide insights into the U.S. labor market, making this an important week to watch for potential changes in monetary policy.

Major Economic Events for the 2nd week of January 2025 (Investing.com)

Summary

Positive Indicators:

• Bitcoin Dominance

• aSOPR

• Exchange Outflows

• Whale Wallet Counts

Negative Indicators:

• Spot ETF Outflows

• U.S. Bond Yields

• U.S. Dollar Index

• Open Interest

Overall Assessment: The cryptocurrency market is entering the new year with a rebound. While inflationary pressures persist in the U.S., the broader macroeconomic environment remains challenging. However, the cryptocurrency market seems resilient, with altcoins showing strong recovery momentum.

If favorable news for cryptocurrencies emerges around President Trump’s January 20 inauguration, Bitcoin could resume its rally. That said, elevated open interest levels indicate the potential for further corrections. In a sideways market, it’s advised to avoid high-leverage futures trading and focus on building spot positions in major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum