![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/1*VZqnMsxEoehYUvkJweeNnA.png)

The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official [League of Traders Telegram channel](https://t.me/leagueoftraders_official).

Here are our notes for the third week of January!

 1. **Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart**

Bitcoin rose from $94,212 last week to $100,173 this week, reflecting a bullish trend. This increase is believed to stem from market expectations surrounding the inauguration of pro-crypto President Trump. Major cryptocurrencies such as Solana and Ripple also showed simultaneous upward movement. Additionally, the launch of the Trump ($TRUMP) meme coin further propelled related assets.

The capital flow of Bitcoin spot ETFs transitioned from outflows to inflows, further boosting market sentiment. In particular, President Trump’s proposal to adopt Bitcoin as a national reserve asset has increased expectations for state-level Bitcoin adoption, strengthening the market’s optimistic outlook.

A key factor behind this rebound is attributed to institutional investors seizing the opportunity to buy at a low price when Bitcoin touched $93K. However, as these positive developments play out, there remains a possibility that institutional investors may take profits, which could lead to short-term corrections. Thus, a cautious approach is recommended.

![BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*ffYe8877_WlroPVT.png)

![Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The block)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*fbLlsal8VqIeCR9a.png)

Ethereum (ETH) went on a decline, moving from $3,269 last week to $3,186 this week, lagging behind Bitcoin’s bullish trend. However, the inflow of funds into Ethereum spot ETFs was a positive signal.

Ethereum’s market cap dominance decreased as it was overtaken by Solana and Ripple, which negatively impacted Ethereum’s trend. While Ethereum’s spot ETF inflows suggest a favorable investment edge, the potential approval of spot ETFs for other major altcoins could make Ethereum’s network competitiveness a critical factor influencing its medium- to long-term performance.

![ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*iC1VakLmBWzuesMY.png)

![Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The block)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*Iitb52MGDir3WarB.png)

Bitcoin dominance increased slightly from 58.06% last week to 58.56% this week. This reflects market optimism stemming from President Trump’s mention of Bitcoin’s potential as a national strategic asset and the approaching inauguration date.

Despite Ethereum’s weakness, Solana and Ripple’s strong performance limited the rise in Bitcoin dominance. For the meantime, Bitcoin dominance is likely to remain strong.

![Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*t1eeVasLWgr8lKN1.png)

**2. Major Economic Indicators**

* US Bond Yields

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined from 4.763% last week to 4.623% this week, stabilizing slightly after hitting its peak last week.

Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, recently expressed opposition to rate cuts during the latest Fed meeting, emphasizing that inflation remains a critical issue. This suggests the possibility of further increases in U.S. interest rates, highlighting the need to monitor heightened volatility in Treasury yields.

![US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*WzKIW-ndhV-KHMvO.png)

* US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index declined slightly from 109.688 last week to 109.405 this week. However, its movement remained limited compared to the drop in Treasury yields. This reflects market expectations that President Trump’s trade and protectionist policies may strengthen the dollar. In the long term, the dollar index is likely to align with interest rate trends, warranting close monitoring of rate fluctuations.

![US Dollar Index (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*2-QWO9XhUQQaVUf2.png)

* US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The US100 index rebounded from 20,768 last week to 21,414 this week, showing signs of recovery. However, it remains within a downward channel since hitting an all-time high late last year, leaving its trend reversal uncertain. Policy changes following President Trump’s inauguration may serve as a key factor influencing the index’s direction, requiring careful observation.

![US100 (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*Hd6lGpR1C5a3nR8h.png)

* Gold Futures

Gold futures rose from $2,687 per ounce last week to $2,695 this week, adding to the ongoing upward trend. This increase is attributed to heightened hedging demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid uncertainties related to the U.S. administration transition.

![Gold Futures (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*ZBXywwbNGiCTzK8m.png)

**3. Bitcoin Market Data**

* MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z-Score rebounded from 2.66 last week to 2.98 this week. As it has not surpassed the critical level of 3, the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high rally remains low. However, if the score were to break past 3, an upward trend could follow.

* Indicator explanation: The MVRV Z-score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and its realized value, divided by the standard deviation. It serves as an indicator to assess whether Bitcoin’s market capitalization is overvalued or undervalued. A score below 0 suggests that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued, while a score of 6 or higher, as seen during the all-time high (ATH) in 2021, indicates an overheated market.

![Bitcoin: MVRV Z Score (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*fy18fezrSaq7EFiu.png)

* aSOPR

The aSOPR metric rose from 1.013 to 1.038 this week. Although it temporarily dropped below 1 last week, signaling potential downward pressure, it has since recovered above 1, indicating that the uptrend is intact.

* SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, is calculated by dividing the price at which Bitcoin was previously received by the price at the time of transfer. A SOPR below 1 indicates a bearish market, while a value above 1 indicates a bullish market. The aSOPR is an adjusted version that excludes short-term transactions (within one hour), providing a more accurate representation.

![Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*owcHuxWWjOm0sqdl.png)

* Open Interest

Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest increased from $27.10 billion last week to $28.11 billion this week. However, the estimated leverage ratio declined from 0.219 to 0.213, signaling inflows of funds into the perpetual futures market. Despite this, the high level of open interest suggests that significant corrections could occur at any time, requiring caution.

![Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*TwxUU7aHJJjLOn_s.png)

![Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*SG19de6s13HQ57bV.png)

**4. On-chain data**

* Exchange inflows and outflows

The net outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges continues, with exchange-held Bitcoin reserves hitting a seven-year low. This trend suggests the possibility of a supply shock, which could act as a positive factor for price increases.

![Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change(Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*TxTmKuFyKDhI1gUe.png)

* Number of Whale Wallets

The number of wallets holding 10K+ Bitcoin showed a slight decline after remaining steady, while wallets holding 1K+ Bitcoin, near their lowest levels since February, experienced a slight increase. Overall, there are no signs of overheating among Bitcoin whales.

![Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*Q2LrVT9mGtdh0EId.png)

![Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1K or more (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*nByM0LbtPIekGnLM.png)

**5. Last Week’s Major News**

* **U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Likelihood Rises to 65%**

The likelihood of the U.S. establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve has surged to 65%. According to **NewsBTC**, this shift is driven by President-elect Donald Trump’s strong support for cryptocurrencies and the upcoming Bitcoin legislation. **Anthony Pompliano**, CEO of Professional Capital Management, highlighted that predictions on the online tool **Kalshi** show a significant increase in this probability. Pompliano stated that the U.S. has a 65% chance of initiating a strategic Bitcoin reserve this year.

* **Market Excitement Ahead of Trump’s Inauguration**

With just one day remaining until President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, the cryptocurrency market has been highly volatile. Expectations surrounding Trump, who has named himself the “Crypto President” fueled significant movements. Bitcoin (BTC), the flagship cryptocurrency, reached an all-time high before consolidating. Solana (SOL) saw over a 10% surge in a single day, driven by the popularity of Trump-themed meme coins. Political and cultural tokens like **TRUMP** and **MAGA** are also gaining attention in the market.

* **Upbit Report: Focus on U.S. Policy and AI Integration**

Macroeconomics and technological advancements are expected to drive changes in the cryptocurrency market this year, according to a recent report by the **Upbit Investor Protection Center. **The report, titled *“Understanding the Digital Asset Sector to See the Market Clearly,”* analyzed last year’s cryptocurrency market trends and highlighted key issues to watch for this year, including U.S. policy shifts and the integration of AI technology.

**6. Major economic events**

**Major economic events last week**

Last week’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell short of expectations, influencing U.S. market interest rates. This led to a decline in U.S. bond yields and provided positive momentum for a rebound across asset markets.

![Major Economic Events for the 3rd week of January 2025 (Investing.com)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*HneZLXgN5IYBk2QA.png)

**This week’s major economic events**

The market will focus on the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report. If this indicator remains stable, U.S. Treasury yields may continue to decline further, fostering a favorable environment for asset markets.

![Major Economic Events for the 4th week of January 2025 (Investing.com)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*64ZXi00Iaaumf7mi.png)

**Summary**

**Positive Indicators**:

* Inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs

* Decline in U.S. bond yields

* Rise in gold futures

* Continued Bitcoin outflows from exchanges

**Negative Indicators**:

* Elevated levels of open interest in Bitcoin futures

* Decline in whale wallet holdings

**Overall Assessment**:
After a sharp rise at the start of the year, U.S. Treasury yields have softened, enabling a rebound in asset markets. While Bitcoin has seen a partial recovery as Trump’s inauguration approaches, leading indicators like high open interest and declining whale wallet numbers are less than ideal. Cautiously observing the broader macroeconomic trends in the U.S. is advisable.