The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official League of Traders Telegram channel.

Here are our notes for the second week of February!

1. Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart

Bitcoin weakened, falling from $101,173 last week to $97,629 this week. The market took a significant hit, particularly after the Trump administration’s tariff policy announcement on Monday, leading to a sharp decline.

The Bitcoin Spot ETF has also seen a reduction in capital inflows and outflows, with institutional investors adopting a wait-and-see approach. While the cautious market sentiment reduces the likelihood of further sharp declines, the lack of strong bullish catalysts suggests that the bearish trend may persist in the near term. However, companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla have continued to announce additional Bitcoin purchases or holdings, which could provide some price support for Bitcoin.

BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The block)

Ethereum (ETH) hit a low of $2,125 last week before rebounding to $2,675, where it is currently sitting. While the limited capital outflow from Bitcoin Spot ETFs is a positive sign, Ethereum’s recovery has been slower compared to other altcoins.

However, Ethereum outflows from exchanges indicate that institutions are accumulating at lower prices, suggesting the formation of a potential support level. Additionally, with the upcoming Consensus event next week, market participants are hopeful for positive developments that could support Ethereum’s price.

ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The block)

Bitcoin dominance surged to 64.34% last week but has since fallen to 61.49%. Amid market uncertainty, Bitcoin continues to be perceived as a safe-haven asset. However, altcoins that experienced sharp corrections are gradually recovering, making a rapid shift in dominance less likely.

Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)

2. Major Economic Indicators

• US Bond Yields

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell slightly from 4.559% last week to 4.501% this week. While the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts has diminished, the market has largely priced this in. Investors are now closely monitoring the impact of U.S. tariff policies on inflation and how upcoming economic indicators will shift accordingly.

US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)

• US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) peaked at 109.991 last week following concerns over Trump’s protectionist trade policies and tariffs but has since pulled back to 108.446.

US Dollar Index (TradingView)

• US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The US100 Index rose from 21,067 last week to 21,662 this week. Concerns over China’s “Deep Seek” issue temporarily impacted AI-related stocks, but big tech companies have resumed their normal investment activity, stabilizing the situation. However, the likelihood of a prolonged rally similar to last year remains low, and market volatility is expected to persist.

US100 (TradingView)

• Gold Futures

Gold futures climbed from $2,797 per ounce last week to $2,915 this week. The sharp rise is attributed to Wall Street banks rapidly unwinding large positions, particularly due to speculation that Trump’s proposed “universal tariffs” might include gold.

This disruption in arbitrage strategies (buying cheaper London spot gold and selling higher-priced New York gold futures) has contributed to gold’s volatility. If gold prices stabilize, some capital may flow back into Bitcoin, which could be a positive sign for the crypto market.

Gold Futures (TradingView)

3. Bitcoin Market Data

• MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z-Score has declined from 2.85 last week to 2.61 this week. The key level to watch is 3, which historically indicates the start of a new bull market. While the potential for further price appreciation remains, a strong rebound is necessary to confirm a bullish trend.

• Indicator explanation: The MVRV Z-score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and its realized value, divided by the standard deviation. It serves as an indicator to assess whether Bitcoin’s market capitalization is overvalued or undervalued. A score below 0 suggests that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued, while a score of 6 or higher, as seen during the all-time high (ATH) in 2021, indicates an overheated market.

Bitcoin: MVRV Z-Score (Glassnode)

• aSOPR

The aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator has increased slightly from 1.008 to 1.013. Since it remains above 1, this suggests that market participants are not realizing losses and instead continue holding their positions, which is typically a bullish sign.

• SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, is calculated by dividing the price at which Bitcoin was previously received by the price at the time of transfer. A SOPR below 1 indicates a bearish market, while a value above 1 indicates a bullish market. The aSOPR is an adjusted version that excludes short-term transactions (within one hour), providing a more accurate representation.

Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)

• Open Interest

The open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures has decreased from $27.07B to $25.72B, while the estimated leverage ratio increased slightly from 0.210 to 0.214. Despite some cooling in market sentiment, the high leverage levels indicate that volatility could remain elevated.

Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)

Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)

4. On-chain data

• Exchange inflows and outflows

Bitcoin continues to experience net outflows from exchanges, with exchange-held BTC balances hitting new lows. The gradual increase in outflows suggests that long-term holding behavior is strengthening, which is typically a positive signal for future price movements.

Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change(Glassnode)

• Number of Whale Wallets

The number of whale wallets holding 10K+ BTC initially declined but has since rebounded, while wallets holding 1K+ BTC have increased slightly. This pattern could indicate a potential short-term recovery, as large holders often exert significant market influence.

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1K or more (Glassnode)

5. Last Week’s Major News

• Trump’s Tariff Bomb Hits Bitcoin & Stock Market Hard

U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs has sent shockwaves across global financial markets. With rising tensions over trade disputes, both the stock market and digital asset markets have suffered sharp declines. The risk appetite of investors has significantly weakened due to increasing economic uncertainty.

• U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund to Decide on Bitcoin Investment Within 90 Days

A newly established U.S. sovereign wealth fund, initiated by Trump’s executive order, is required to submit its investment plans within 90 days. Market participants are keen to see whether Bitcoin (BTC) purchases will be included in its strategy.

• Tesla Holds $1.07 Billion Worth of Bitcoin

Tesla disclosed in its annual SEC 10-K report that, as of the end of the 2024 fiscal year, it held 11,509 BTC. The reported valuation of these holdings stood at $1.07 billion as of February 10th.

6. Major economic events

Major economic events last week

Recent economic data releases have heightened inflation concerns. Last week’s reports, including the Eurozone CPI, U.S. Manufacturing PMI, and Non-Farm Payrolls, all exceeded expectations, reinforcing fears of prolonged tight monetary policy. The combination of Trump’s tariff policies and the Fed’s stance on inflation has led to increased market volatility, weighing on risk assets.

Major Economic Events for the 1st week of February 2025 (Investing.com)

This week’s major economic events

This week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony will be a major market-moving event for crypto and broader financial markets. As this will be Powell’s first public statement after the U.S. administration transition, investors will closely watch whether his policies align with Trump’s economic strategy. If the Fed signals a dovish stance, risk appetite may strengthen, whereas a hawkish stance could lead to heightened volatility.

Major Economic Events for the 2nd week of February 2025 (Investing.com)

Summary

Positive Indicators: U.S. Treasury yields, Gold futures, Exchange outflows, Whale wallet accumulation

Negative Indicators: Open interest in futures, Bitcoin dominance, MVRV Z-score

Overall Assessment: Following Trump’s “tariff war” announcement, asset markets experienced a sharp correction but have shown signs of partial recovery. Bitcoin and other major assets remain in a bearish trend, though some oversold assets may present short-term rebound opportunities.

However, institutional investors remain cautious, as evidenced by ETF inflows/outflows, and previous bullish catalysts from Trump’s return to office seem to have faded. Thus, while short-term trading opportunities exist, large spot or long positions should be approached with caution in the longer term.