The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official League of Traders Telegram channel.

Here are our notes for the third week of February!

1. Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart

Bitcoin continued its downward trend, dropping from $97,629 last week to $96,451 this week. While spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a small inflow, the scale of these inflows remains significantly lower than last year. The market appears to be in a consolidation phase, preparing for the next major move.

BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The block)

Ethereum (ETH), on the other hand, remained relatively stable, moving only slightly from $2,675 to $2,680. Compared to Bitcoin, ETH has been more resilient, but its performance over the past three months has been lackluster. If key support levels hold, a potential rebound is possible, though downside risks remain, with support at $2,100 still in play. Spot Ethereum ETFs also saw minimal net flows, indicating that investors remain cautious.

ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The block)

Bitcoin dominance decreased from 61.49% last week to 60.82% this week, as some altcoins showed gradual recovery. Given the current phase of market consolidation, further changes in dominance may be limited.

Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)

2. Major Economic Indicators

• US Bond Yields

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slightly declined from 4.501% to 4.478%. Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s delay in rate cuts initially pushed yields higher, they later dropped due to weaker U.S. economic data. If rates continue to decline, liquidity could flow into risk assets like Bitcoin, increasing rebound potential.

US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)

• US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell sharply from 108.446 to 106.729. This decline reflects speculation that Trump’s tariff policies are more of a negotiation tactic than an immediate action plan. Additionally, gold has been gaining traction as an alternative safe-haven asset, contributing to the dollar’s weakness.

US Dollar Index (TradingView)

• US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The Nasdaq 100 index rose from 21,662 to 22,190, driven by strong earnings from major U.S. tech companies. Meta (Facebook), in particular, extended its record-setting 17-day rally. While the outlook remains positive, volatility could increase near all-time highs.

US100 (TradingView)

• Gold Futures

Gold futures slightly declined from $2,915 to $2,895 per ounce, but investor interest remains strong. Wall Street’s push into gold has spread to retail investors, triggering a panic-buying trend.

Gold Futures (TradingView)

3. Bitcoin Market Data

• MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z-Score dropped from 2.61 to 2.53, moving further away from the key bullish breakout level of 3. This indicates that a trend reversal is needed for Bitcoin to regain momentum.

• Indicator explanation: The MVRV Z-score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and its realized value, divided by the standard deviation. It serves as an indicator to assess whether Bitcoin’s market capitalization is overvalued or undervalued. A score below 0 suggests that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued, while a score of 6 or higher, as seen during the all-time high (ATH) in 2021, indicates an overheated market.

Bitcoin: MVRV Z-Score(Glassnode)

• aSOPR

The aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio) declined from 1.013 to 1.004 but remains above 1.0, suggesting that the overall uptrend is still intact. However, if this metric falls below 1.0, it could signal a medium-to-long-term downtrend.

• SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, is calculated by dividing the price at which Bitcoin was previously received by the price at the time of transfer. A SOPR below 1 indicates a bearish market, while a value above 1 indicates a bullish market. The aSOPR is an adjusted version that excludes short-term transactions (within one hour), providing a more accurate representation.

Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)

• Open Interest

Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures slightly decreased from $25.72B to $25.70B, but it remains at elevated levels. Meanwhile, the estimated leverage ratio rose from 0.214 to 0.216, indicating reduced inflows into the perpetual futures market. This is a key metric that requires close monitoring.

Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)

Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)

4. On-chain data

• Exchange inflows and outflows

Bitcoin net outflows from exchanges continue, but at a slower pace. Some exchanges witnessed withdrawals of over 10,000 BTC in a single transaction, raising concerns about potential selling pressure.

Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change (Glassnode)

• Number of Whale Wallets

The number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K+ BTC slightly increased, as did wallets holding 1K+ BTC. While this may drive a short-term price bounce, the overall impact remains limited. A stronger trend shift is needed for sustained bullish momentum.

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1K or more (Glassnode)

5. Last Week’s Major News

• Gold Investment Boom: Gold-Backed Tokens Surge

As enthusiasm for gold investment intensifies, gold prices continue to skyrocket. This has driven a surge in gold-backed cryptocurrencies, which are now seen as a hedge against potential economic uncertainties stemming from Trump’s tariff policies.

• Musk vs. Altman: $97.4 Billion OpenAI Buyout Proposal

Elon Musk and Sam Altman are in direct conflict. A Musk-led investor group has proposed acquiring OpenAI for $97.4 billion. Altman rejected the offer and countered by suggesting he would buy Twitter (formerly X) for the same amount. Musk, in turn, called Altman a “swindler” in a heated exchange.

• Robinhood’s Crypto Trading Boom Doubles Revenue

On February 12, Robinhood reported Q4 2024 revenue of $1.01 billion, exceeding Wall Street’s estimate of $940.8 million. A major contributor was its crypto-related revenue, which skyrocketed by 700% to $358 million, driving strong financial results.

6. Major economic events

Major economic events last week

Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the U.S. economy remains strong and there is no urgency to cut interest rates. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly exceeded expectations both monthly and annually, keeping inflation concerns alive and reducing the likelihood of an imminent rate cut. However, some economic indicators, such as core retail sales, showed significant slowdowns, raising concerns about a broader economic downturn. From a market perspective, this slowdown could ultimately benefit risk assets.

Major Economic Events for the 2nd week of February 2025 (Investing.com)

This week’s major economic events

This week, key events include President Trump’s speech and the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. These could impact U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, making them critical factors to watch.

Major Economic Events for the 3rd week of February 2025 (Investing.com)

Summary

Positive Indicators: U.S. bond yields, U.S. dollar index, gold futures, Bitcoin whale wallet growth

Negative Indicators: Open interest, estimated leverage ratio, MVRV Z-Score, aSOPR

Overall Assessment: The cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, continues to experience weak momentum. Declining inflows in Bitcoin spot ETFs suggest lower trading volume and liquidity. This could indicate an approaching inflection point. While lower interest rates and a weaker dollar could provide a positive boost, high leverage ratios and decreasing open interest highlight persistent risks. A neutral stance may be the most prudent approach in the current market conditions.