The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official League of Traders Telegram channel.

Here are our notes for the first week of March!

1. Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart

The market has experienced a significant downturn, driven by the largest hacking incident in Bybit’s history and broader asset market turbulence stemming from President Trump’s tariff policies. According to Finbold, last week saw an outflow of approximately $2.6 billion from Bitcoin Spot ETFs — the largest on record — surpassing the previous high of $2.1 billion from late last year by about $500 million.

Chart analysis indicates an accelerating decline, with the 69K level — where the uptrend began in November of last year — serving as a technically critical support zone, leaving the market vulnerable to further downside risks. However, having undergone a sharp correction and heightened volatility in the short term, coupled with a partial unwinding of risks such as open interest, there remains a reasonable likelihood of support forming at current levels.

BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The block)

Ethereum, meanwhile, breached the anticipated downside support of $2,100 last week, recording a substantial drop. This reflects capital outflows from Ethereum Spot ETFs and a broader risk-averse sentiment among investors, positioning Ethereum’s price at a relative low compared to Bitcoin. Nevertheless, the potential for a technical rebound persists, warranting close monitoring amid ongoing market volatility.

ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The Block)

Bitcoin dominance saw a slight decline, slipping from 62.03% last week to 61.43% this week. This shift was influenced by President Trump’s recent tweet mentioning altcoins, which spurred a notable recovery in altcoin prices, alongside their deeper declines relative to Bitcoin in prior periods. Altcoins now appear to be entering a zone conducive to a technical rebound, contributing to the modest dip in Bitcoin dominance.

Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)

2. Major Economic Indicators

• US Bond Yields

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell sharply from 4.348% last week to 4.146% this week. This decline is attributed to heightened uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies and growing concerns over a potential economic slowdown, driving capital inflows into the bond market. Such trends reflect investors’ inclination to shift toward safe-haven assets, exerting downward pressure on yields.

US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)

• US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) weakened from 106.798 last week to 105.683 this week. Analysts attribute this drop to the concurrent decline in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, which has softened demand for the dollar as investors adopt a risk-off stance.

US Dollar Index (TradingView)

• US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The US100 index, after reaching an all-time high two weeks ago, has declined sharply for two consecutive weeks, dropping to 20,463 this week. With the possibility of falling further toward the 20,000 level, market unease is intensifying. Fears of a U.S. economic slowdown are materializing, negatively impacting equities, while macroeconomic indicators are also being revised downward. That said, the Trump administration’s vocal support for rate cuts raises prospects for a potential rebound fueled by enhanced market liquidity in the near future.

US100 (TradingView)

• Gold Futures

Gold futures prices edged down slightly from $2,940 per ounce last week to $2,910 this week. Yet, demand for gold-related assets remains robust amid an uncertain market environment. Heightened U.S. tariff policies and global recession fears continue to bolster gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, likely supporting its price strength in the near term.

Gold Futures (TradingView)

3. Bitcoin Market Data

• MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score dropped significantly from 2.30 last week to 2.07 this week, moving further from the threshold of 3 — often regarded as a signal of an overheated bull market. This suggests the market is not overheated and has entered a neutral range. Should further declines occur, investor sentiment could weaken further; conversely, a rebound could serve as a catalyst for an upward shift, necessitating careful observation.

Indicator Explanation: The MVRV Z-Score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market cap and realized cap, divided by standard deviation, offering insight into whether Bitcoin is over- or undervalued. A score below 0 indicates significant undervaluation, while the overheated zone during the 2021 all-time high exceeded 6.

Bitcoin: MVRV Z-Score(Glassnode)

• aSOPR

The aSOPR indicator fell sharply from 1.012 last week to 0.979 this week, dipping below 1. This signals that investors are, on average, selling coins at a loss — a classic hallmark of a bearish market phase. With sentiment subdued, the risk of additional selling pressure looms, though the potential for a V-shaped recovery following such a steep drop should not be discounted.

• SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, is calculated by dividing the price at which Bitcoin was previously received by the price at the time of transfer. SOPR below 1 indicates a bearish market, while a value above 1 indicates a bullish market. The aSOPR is an adjusted version that excludes short-term transactions (within one hour), providing a more accurate representation.

Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)

• Open Interest

Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures plummeted from $25.90 billion last week to $21.06 billion this week. Concurrently, the estimated leverage ratio dropped from 0.231 to 0.198, signaling a reduction in market leverage pressures. This unwind of excessive leverage — a key destabilizing factor in the recent downturn — suggests that while further declines remain possible, the likelihood of extreme volatility has diminished.

Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)

Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)

4. On-chain data

• Exchange inflows and outflows

Bitcoin’s net outflows from exchanges persist, though the volume of outflows is gradually decreasing. Meanwhile, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have hit an all-time low, a potentially bullish signal from a supply perspective. However, this must be weighed against the significant outflows from Spot ETFs.

Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change(Glassnode)

• Number of Whale Wallets

The number of wallets holding 10,000+ BTC has remained stable, while those holding 1,000+ BTC saw a sharp decline followed by a recovery to near prior levels. This suggests that large holders are adopting a wait-and-see approach rather than actively accumulating.

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1K or more (Glassnode)

5. Last Week’s Major News

• Trump Reaffirms Crypto Strategic Reserve, Mentions BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA

U.S. President Donald Trump has reiterated his commitment to establishing a Crypto Strategic Reserve. In his announcement, Trump specified the cryptocurrencies targeted for inclusion: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA). Notably, Bitcoin and Ethereum were absent from his initial mention. Approximately an hour later, Trump posted an addendum on his social media platform, Truth Social, stating, “I love Bitcoin and Ethereum too,” clarifying their inclusion.

• Asset Markets Plummet as Trump’s Tariffs Take Effect; Nasdaq Drops 2.64% in a Single Day

Major U.S. stock indices closed sharply lower on March 3 (local time) at the New York Stock Exchange. Investors, already rattled by weakening economic data, expressed heightened concerns that President Donald Trump’s impending tariff implementation would further exacerbate economic strain.

• “Rate Cuts Are the Administration’s Top Priority” — U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has pledged to lower interest rates to alleviate the burdens faced by American citizens. Criticizing the previous administration’s excessive regulations for driving up costs, Bessent outlined a strategy to stabilize the economy through financial deregulation and expanded energy production. Attention is now focused on whether these measures — deregulation and rate cuts — can restore market stability.

6. Major economic events

Major economic events last week

Over the past two weeks, major economic indicators have consistently fallen short of expectations, amplifying signals of an economic slowdown. While fourth-quarter GDP aligned with forecasts, new unemployment claims surged beyond projections, and new home sales weakened, further underscoring the potential contraction of the U.S. economy.

Major Economic Events for the 4th week of February 2025 (Investing.com)

This week’s major economic events

This week, the spotlight falls on speeches by President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which are poised to dominate market attention. With signs of a U.S. economic slowdown becoming more pronounced, the stances articulated by the administration’s leader and the architect of monetary policy will be closely scrutinized. Should Trump elaborate on tariff policy expansions or timelines, market volatility could intensify further.

Major Economic Events for the 1st week of March 2025 (Investing.com)

Summary

Positive Indicators: U.S. Treasury yields, Bitcoin dominance, Open interest, Estimated leverage ratio

Negative Indicators: Trump’s tariff policies, Nasdaq 100, aSOPR

Overall Assessment: Global asset markets have trended downward amid concerns over Trump’s tariff policies and a potential U.S. economic slowdown. However, following two weeks of steep declines, risk metrics such as open interest and estimated leverage ratios have eased, suggesting a reduction in immediate pressures. Moreover, after months of under-performance, altcoins may be primed for a short-term technical rebound.