The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official League of Traders Telegram channel.

Here are our notes for the second week of March!

1. Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart

Bitcoin, which surged to $92,810 on Binance last week, plummeted below $80,000, amplifying market volatility. Although it rebounded by over 10% from the start of the week, a sharp decline soon followed. This downturn coincided with remarks from former President Trump suggesting that a temporary economic recession might be tolerable to manage U.S. debt and normalize the economy, contributing to weakness across most economic indicators, including major stock indices and the U.S. Dollar Index.

From a technical perspective, the $69,000 level could serve as a critical support line. If this support holds, a rebound to the low-to-mid $80,000 range is possible. However, persistent capital outflows from Bitcoin Spot ETFs and the absence of fresh catalysts to drive further gains suggest that a clear uptrend is unlikely until market uncertainty subsides.

BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The block)

Ethereum, meanwhile, dropped below $2,000, hitting a low of $1,754 on Binance, effectively breaching its downside support. Since former President Trump’s inauguration, economic uncertainty — stemming from tariff policies — has triggered significant capital flight from risk assets. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum is perceived as carrying greater risk, exacerbating its decline.

Over the past five years, Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin, reaching new lows and displaying pronounced weakness. While a short-term rebound is possible, concerns linger after Ethereum was notably absent from a White House cryptocurrency summit attended by key industry figures, unlike other major coins. With no significant catalysts to reverse its trajectory and following a steep decline, the market appears to be awaiting bargain-buying interest.

ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The block)

Bitcoin dominance rose from 61.43% last week to 61.94% this week. Despite Bitcoin’s price decline, steeper losses in major altcoins like Ethereum and Solana drove this uptick. Typically, rising dominance signals Bitcoin’s relative strength, but in this instance, it reflects the sharper downturn in altcoins, casting a broadly negative shadow over the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)

2. Major Economic Indicators

• US Bond Yields

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged up slightly from 4.146% last week to 4.179% this week. A decline in unemployment claims last week hinted at a potential recovery in U.S. economic data, but broader employment metrics — such as rising unemployment rates — deteriorated. President Trump’s comments about tolerating a recession to enact tariff policies heightened market uncertainty, reinforcing a preference for safe-haven assets and exerting downward pressure on yields.

US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)

• US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell sharply from 105.683 last week to 103.733 this week, marking its largest weekly drop in 27 months — outpacing the decline in 10-year Treasury yields. Growing fears of U.S. economic weakness are driving this depreciation of the dollar.

US Dollar Index (TradingView)

• US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The US100 index, after hitting an all-time high last month, declined for three consecutive weeks, slipping to 19,299 this week — below the 20,000 threshold. Since President Trump’s inauguration and subsequent tariff policy mentions, asset markets have broadly weakened. Some speculate that the administration may be steering capital toward the Treasury market, fueling conspiracy theories.

US100 (TradingView)

• Gold Futures

Gold futures prices dipped slightly from $2,910 per ounce last week to $2,894 this week. Ongoing market instability sustains demand for gold, suggesting price stability in the near term.

Gold Futures (TradingView)

3. Bitcoin Market Data

• MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z-Score fell from 2.07 last week to 1.66 this week, reflecting a cooling market. A score above 3 is typically required to signal a bull market, but reaching that level appears unlikely in the near term.

Indicator Explanation: The MVRV Z-Score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market cap and realized cap, divided by standard deviation, offering insight into whether Bitcoin is over- or undervalued. A score below 0 indicates significant undervaluation, while the overheated zone during the 2021 all-time high exceeded 6.

Bitcoin: MVRV Z Score (Glassnode)

• aSOPR

The aSOPR indicator rose slightly from 0.979 last week to 0.995 this week but remains below 1, a hallmark of a bearish market. A move above 1 would signal potential for a sustained short-term rebound.

Indicator Explanation: SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) divides the price of Bitcoin at the time of spending by its price when received. A value below 1 suggests a bear market, while above 1 indicates a bull market. aSOPR refines this by filtering out insignificant transactions within an hour, providing a more precise metric.

Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)

• Open Interest

Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures dropped from $21.06 billion last week to $20.15 billion this week, while the estimated leverage ratio rose from 0.198 to 0.209. This reflects capital exiting the perpetual futures market. Despite the decline, open interest remains elevated, and the rising leverage ratio suggests persistent market risk.

Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)

Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)

4. On-chain data

• Exchange inflows and outflows

The net outflow trend of Bitcoin from exchanges has ended, and any shift toward inflows could pose significant supply-side challenges, warranting caution.

Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change(Glassnode)

• Number of Whale Wallets

The number of wallets holding 10,000+ BTC rose slightly, while those with 1,000+ BTC rebounded. This suggests some whale accumulation, though likely short-term rather than a sustained trend.

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1K or more (Glassnode)

5. Last Week’s Major News

Global Bitcoin Ownership at 4% — Comparable to Internet Adoption in 1990
Only 4% of the global population owns Bitcoin, according to a report by Cointelegraph published on the 9th. The U.S. leads with 14% of its population holding BTC, while North America boasts the highest continental adoption rate. Africa trails at 1.6%.

Strategy Plans $21 Billion Stock Sale to Boost Bitcoin Holdings
Michael Saylor, Chairman of Strategy (STRK, formerly MicroStrategy), announced a $21 billion stock sale to expand the company’s Bitcoin (BTC) holdings. The plan has been formally submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

U.S. Treasuries Rally Amid Recession Fears as Investors Favor Safe Havens
Worsening U.S. economic outlooks have bolstered long-term Treasuries. Earlier this year, markets reflected optimism for sustained growth, but sentiment has shifted dramatically. While inflation expectations remain steady, growth forecasts have declined, driving strength in bonds and weakness in equities.

6. Major economic events

Major economic events last week

Expectations of economic recovery rose as Europe’s Consumer Price Index and the U.S. Manufacturing PMI exceeded forecasts, and U.S. unemployment claims fell below projections. However, disappointing U.S. unemployment and non-farm payroll data triggered a market sell-off, worsened by Trump’s remarks, leading to significant asset market declines last week.

Major Economic Events for the 1st week of March 2025 (Investing.com)

This week’s major economic events

The U.S. Department of Labor’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be a focal point this week. Should U.S. economic indicators stabilize and interest rates hold steady, a rebound could gain traction.

Major Economic Events for the 2nd week of March 2025 (Investing.com)

Summary

Negative Indicators: Open interest, whale wallet activity

Negative Indicators: Bitcoin Spot ETF flows, Nasdaq 100, estimated leverage ratio, MVRV Z-Score, aSOPR, exchange flows

Overall Assessment: Heightened market uncertainty has severely dampened investor sentiment. Significant capital outflows from U.S. equities and Bitcoin Spot ETFs, coupled with slowing Bitcoin exchange outflows and a negative aSOPR shift, underscore bearish signals. However, declining open interest and signs of whale accumulation suggest a potential for short-term technical rebounds amid a mixed outlook.