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The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official [League of Traders Telegram channel](https://t.me/leagueoftraders_official).

Here are our notes for the fourth week of March!

 1. **Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart**

Bitcoin has sustained a rebound for two consecutive weeks, reaching the $87,000 mark. It is currently encountering short-term resistance at this level, and a breakthrough could pave the way for further upside momentum. Conversely, a downside support level is anticipated to form around $78,000.

Capital flows into Bitcoin Spot ETFs have also shifted modestly into positive territory. This suggests that the short-term rebound has been successful, though additional momentum will be required to reverse the longer-term downtrend.

![BTCUSDT](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*_eXNMoXNwc72-okO.png)

![Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The Block)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*MEGfKoLVnoTHauFO.png)

Ethereum has exhibited a stronger rebound relative to Bitcoin, surpassing $2,000 and climbing to $2,074. This is attributed to an easing of outflows from Spot Ethereum ETFs and the significant correction it has already undergone, resulting in a comparatively larger recovery.

However, unlike Bitcoin Spot ETFs, Ethereum Spot ETFs continue to experience net outflows, with no signs of transitioning to inflows. Consequently, the sustainability of Ethereum’s upward trajectory hinges on whether its ETF flows shift from outflows to inflows — a critical variable moving forward.

![ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*10x5yIGPQ6UokMdz.png)

![Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The Block)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*w9pChjrkm0jSzC6-.png)

Bitcoin dominance has remained largely stable, fluctuating minimally from last week’s 61.63%, reflecting a sideways trend. While certain altcoins have posted strong short-term rebounds, these appear to be isolated movements rather than indicative of a broader altcoin market recovery, which is too premature to confirm.

![Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*lTVrkhKJ8LMlF3Zn.png)

**2. Major Economic Indicators**

* US Bond Yields

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has held steady, moving from 4.278% last week to 4.277% this week. After a brief mid-week decline, yields rebounded following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision to maintain current interest rates, stabilizing at this level. However, a gap in the yield chart suggests potential volatility as the market may seek to close this discrepancy, necessitating close observation of subsequent reactions.

![US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*c13ZNiuTwn4lWuMe.png)

* US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) edged up slightly from 103.597 last week to 103.930 this week, though it continues to exhibit a largely range-bound pattern with minimal fluctuation. Given the potential for heightened volatility due to U.S. tariff policies and global geopolitical developments, ongoing monitoring is advisable.

![US Dollar Index (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*J7kkSBMEetMGx2LW.png)

* US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The US100 index surged past 20,000, driven by a gap-up move. This rebound follows an extended period of excessive declines, bolstered by the FOMC’s decision to hold rates steady while leaving the door open for future cuts — a key catalyst for the equity rally. However, the gap-up movement may face downward pressure to fill the gap, warranting caution.

![US100 (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*WTxG-gsX3FxpOT8g.png)

* Gold Futures

Gold futures reached an all-time high last week, hovering near $3,030 per ounce. As geopolitical instability persists, gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset is likely to sustain its bullish momentum in the near term.

![Gold Futures (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*KDGbEKP3AzbzP8dG.png)

**3. Bitcoin Market Data**

* MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z-Score rose from 1.82 last week to 1.95 this week, continuing it’s upward trend. However, the strength of this rebound remains modest, casting uncertainty over its sustainability. Close attention should be paid to whether the score can reclaim the 3 threshold — indicative of an overheated market — though a near-term recovery to this level appears challenging.

*Indicator Explanation*: The MVRV Z-Score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market cap and realized cap, divided by standard deviation, offering insight into whether Bitcoin is over- or undervalued. A score below 0 indicates significant undervaluation, while the overheated zone during the 2021 all-time high exceeded 6.

![Bitcoin: MVRV Z-Score(Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*T-wzf57tChBilFd9.png)

* aSOPR

The aSOPR indicator increased slightly from 1.000 last week to 1.008 this week. However, daily readings reveal periods dipping below 1, suggesting that a sustained bull market cannot yet be confirmed. The metric currently reflects a mixed trend, with market directionality remaining unclear.

*Indicator Explanation*: SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) divides the price of Bitcoin at the time of spending by its price when received. A value below 1 suggests a bear market, while above 1 indicates a bull market. aSOPR refines this by filtering out insignificant transactions within an hour, providing a more precise metric.

![Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*kh-21_Li99d8SJf5.png)

* Open Interest

Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures rose from $20.82 billion last week to $21.72 billion this week, while the estimated leverage ratio declined from 0.163 to 0.160. This marks a rare instance of capital inflows into the perpetual futures market. The drop in leverage ratio indicates that participants are not employing excessive risk. However, given the still-elevated absolute level of open interest compared to pre-Q4 rally figures, concerns linger about potential volatility from liquidations.

![Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*9rHB3zescZzrYAyR.png)

![Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*_J03QLALW0SpP2mD.png)

**4. On-chain data**

* Exchange inflows and outflows

Net outflows of Bitcoin from exchanges have resumed, a trend that could positively influence Bitcoin’s price over the medium to long term. Sustained net outflows reduce available supply, potentially driving upward pressure on prices from a supply-demand perspective.

![Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change(Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*3hR7nahlvXL25CY2.png)

* Number of Whale Wallets

The number of Bitcoin whale wallets has stabilized after last week’s increase. Notably, wallets holding 1,000+ BTC have risen significantly this month, signaling that whales may be positioning for a short-term uptick. However, recent trends suggest these whales may be selling for profit-taking, necessitating vigilance for any decline in wallet counts.

![Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*9RGptVd93DaPOoUU.png)

![Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1K or more (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*57HAoMGBQiLFyT_4.png)

**5. Last Week’s Major News**

**U.S. Federal Reserve Maintains Rates, Signals Two Potential Cuts in 2025**  
The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on March 19 that it would hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25–4.5%, unchanged since December of last year. Following a two-day FOMC meeting, the Fed hinted at the possibility of two rate cuts within the year, reflecting economic uncertainty. Markets, having anticipated no rate adjustments, interpreted the decision favorably.

**TON Surges Past $3.8 After Securing $400 Million Investment**  
Toncoin (TON), the native token of The Open Network (TON) blockchain, briefly exceeded $3.8 during trading on March 20 (New York time) following news of significant institutional investment. According to CoinDesk, the TON Foundation disclosed that multiple venture capital firms — including Sequoia Capital, Ribbit Capital, Benchmark, and Kingsway — collectively invested $400 million, boosting market optimism.

**Mt. Gox Moves $1.1 Billion in Bitcoin, Third Transfer This Month**  
The defunct cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox executed its third large-scale Bitcoin (BTC) transfer this month. Blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence reported on March 25 that Mt. Gox moved 11,501 BTC — split across two wallets — raising speculation of impending creditor repayments.

**6. Major Economic Events**

**Major economic events last week**

Last week, U.S. core retail sales and inflation indices fell short of expectations, signaling a potential economic slowdown. However, the FOMC’s decision to maintain current interest rates aligned with investor expectations, bolstering optimism for future rate cuts. Subsequent economic data releases were interpreted as positive indicators of economic resilience, exerting an overall favorable influence on asset markets.

![Major Economic Events for the 3rd week of March 2025 (Investing.com)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*r754hpRnxt2Oa4FC.png)

**This week’s major economic events**

Attention this week will center on the fourth-quarter GDP release and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. With the U.S. economic outlook shifting from pessimism to renewed optimism, positive outcomes from these key indicators could further uplift asset markets.

![Major Economic Events for the 4th week of March 2025 (Investing.com)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*1Zx-Y8uXxlDvSuTG.png)

**Summary**

**Positive Indicators:** Bitcoin Spot ETF inflows, US100, Exchange net flows, Estimated leverage ratio

**Negative Indicators:** Ethereum Spot ETF outflows, Gold futures prices

**Overall Assessment:** Following the FOMC’s rate freeze, optimism surrounding the prospect of two rate cuts within the year has fueled a rebound in asset markets. This recovery comes after a period of significant corrections. However, it is premature to interpret this as a transition to a sustained uptrend; rather, it appears that latent liquidity in the market is being deployed into new positions. The durability of this upward momentum will likely hinge on Bitcoin Spot ETF capital flows. Robust inflows into the spot market could sustain a trend reversal, whereas their absence may see prices revert downward along the longer-term trendline.