![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/1*jlvUjp8n6Vdk7dpzUflUIA.png)

The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official [League of Traders Telegram channel](https://t.me/leagueoftraders_official).

Here are our notes for the third week of April!

 1. **Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart**

Bitcoin staged a recovery from $78,000, pushing back to$85,000, though the sustainability of this uptrend remains uncertain. The announcement of Trump’s tariff deferral served as the catalyst for this rebound, but escalating U.S.-China tensions — exacerbated by China’s imposition of up to 125% retaliatory tariffs — have intensified geopolitical strains. Against a backdrop of slowing employment indicators fueling recession concerns, a stable breakthrough above $90,000 is likely necessary for this short-term rally to evolve into a sustained uptrend. Meanwhile, Bitcoin Spot ETF flows continue to reflect net outflows, underscoring the need for a cautious approach.

![BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*PdOhHp5jV9lXv9zt.png)

![Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The block)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*DndNOGookQ-ZSDQc.png)

Ethereum, which fell to a low of $1,300 last week, rebounded to the $1,600s. However, the lack of an accompanying trading volume and persistent outflows from Spot Ethereum ETFs suggest that a robust trend reversal is unlikely in the near term.

![ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*UZ6TqgrEwT-CBIcF.png)

![Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The block)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*RWamKIYQvETIepdp.png)

Bitcoin dominance rose from 63.32% last week to 63.76% this week, reflecting a continued concentration of capital in Bitcoin as a relatively safer asset within the cryptocurrency market. This trend signals caution for the broader crypto market, as a trend reversal would require a revival of speculative sentiment and a rebound in altcoin market share.

![Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*vmV3VLeaL8TcnRoO.png)

**2. Major Economic Indicators**

* US Bond Yields

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged from 3.938% last week to 4.356% this week. This spike was driven by a massive sell-off of U.S. Treasuries in Asian markets, accompanied by a weakening U.S. Dollar Index, signaling growing apprehension among global investors about the U.S. economy. Such unusual capital flows warrant close scrutiny of future developments.

![US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*zdqpXMSp80VPmZgz.png)

* US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped significantly from 102.999 last week to 99.958 this week. This decline is attributed to heightened selling pressure on the dollar following Trump’s tariff policy announcements, as major nations move to defend their currencies. A sustained dollar weakness could have broader implications for global asset markets.

![US Dollar Index (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*XAQy6kqauqgYa36I.png)

* US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The US100 index rebounded from 16,786 last week to 18,767 this week, swiftly recovering the gap created by its prior decline. Volatility is expected to persist as markets await clarity on Trump’s deferred tariff policies. Additionally, individual stock movements may vary depending on their exposure to tariff-related impacts, making sector-specific analysis critical.

![US100 (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*hbl95UuuMoY5BfeI.png)

* Gold Futures

Gold futures reached an all-time high of $3,221 per ounce last week but experienced a brief correction due to concerns over Germany’s rumored withdrawal of physical gold reserves from the U.S. Nevertheless, surging demand for gold amid geopolitical instability has fueled an unprecedented rally. As the standout performer in 2025’s asset markets, gold’s trajectory raises questions about whether Bitcoin will solidify its role as “digital gold” or remain a relatively volatile speculative asset — a pivotal inflection point.

![Gold Futures (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*bwDTeznMEMrW1u0u.png)

**3. Bitcoin Market Data**

* MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z-Score rose from 1.56 last week to 1.85 this week, reflecting a recovery from its recent sharp decline. However, this level remains insufficient to signal a trend reversal.

*Indicator Explanation*: The MVRV Z-Score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market cap and realized cap, divided by standard deviation, offering insight into whether Bitcoin is over- or undervalued. A score below 0 indicates significant undervaluation, while the overheated zone during the 2021 all-time high exceeded 6.

![Bitcoin: MVRV Z-Score(Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*-uju-VbcxkN8V9nv.png)

* aSOPR

The aSOPR indicator increased from 0.999 last week to 1.018 this week. However, frequent dips below 1 during the prior week cast uncertainty over whether this signals a definitive shift to a bullish trend.

*Indicator Explanation*: SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) divides the price of Bitcoin at the time of spending by its price when received. A value below 1 suggests a bear market, while above 1 indicates a bull market. aSOPR refines this by filtering out insignificant transactions within an hour, providing a more precise metric.

![Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*3PSrlzouzcqkHvH3.png)

* Open Interest

Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures rose from $20.80 billion last week to $21.90 billion this week, while the estimated leverage ratio slightly declined from 0.167 to 0.165. The elevated open interest continues to pose risks of cascading liquidations, necessitating caution.

![Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*_3aii4XznwVUwpxY.png)

![Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*8xedp1AT2z6rLfLK.png)

**4. On-chain data**

* Exchange inflows and outflows

Bitcoin’s net outflow trend from exchanges persists, signaling a positive development for the market. However, a slight reduction in outflow volume suggests potential shifts ahead, requiring ongoing monitoring.

![Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*pzhOxgWU08C6OMh7.png)

* Number of Whale Wallets

Wallets holding 10,000+ BTC have remained at low levels following a recent decline, showing no signs of recovery. Conversely, wallets holding 1,000+ BTC have surged significantly, surpassing 2,100 — a level often aligned with short-term trends. Sustained growth in this metric could foreshadow a sharp rebound, though vigilance is warranted.

![Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*yrgpc73JY9n2vcux.png)

![Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1K or more (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*1YhKrZ6EMDB-3dZv.png)

**5. Last Week’s Major News**

## Trump Announces 90-Day Tariff Deferral for Most Nations, Imposes 125% on China

On April 9th, Donald Trump announced that reciprocal tariffs, effective from 12:01 a.m., would be deferred for 90 days for most countries, with a 10% baseline tariff applied. However, he intensified pressure on China, vowing to impose a 125% tariff immediately. This escalation underscores deepening U.S.-China tensions, amplifying uncertainty in the global economic order.

## Ray Dalio: “Tariffs Signal Early Stages of Order Collapse; Focus on Five Root Causes”

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, cautioned that the escalating U.S.-China tariff conflict transcends mere trade disputes, urging attention to structural shifts. He highlighted five driving forces shaping the global landscape: monetary order, domestic political order, international geopolitical order, climate change, and technological transformation.

## U.S. Treasury Sell-Off Spreads; 30-Year Yields Surge Most Since 1981

A widespread sell-off of U.S. Treasuries has sparked liquidity concerns in global financial markets. Analysts attribute this to market turmoil originating from U.S. tariff measures, prompting investors to secure cash. In Asian markets, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped 20 basis points to 4.46% — a rare and significant move.

**6. Major economic events**

**Major economic events last week**

Last week’s FOMC meeting minutes revealed a cautious stance among Fed officials regarding rate cuts. Concurrently, key employment indicators, including initial jobless claims, underperformed, heightening concerns about economic weakness. These developments are poised to influence monetary policy direction and market sentiment moving forward.

![Major Economic Events for the 2nd week of April 2025 (Investing.com)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*dTcUAnx8NagKfvdA.png)

**This week’s major economic events**

This week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech and the Eurozone’s interest rate decision are expected to draw significant attention. As the U.S.-China tariff war intensifies, speculation about potential rate cuts is mounting. While a cut could spur short-term rallies in risk assets like equities, its ability to drive a broader trend reversal remains uncertain.

![Major Economic Events for the 3rd week of April 2025 (Investing.com)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*dp1pXNIjZ-W-UpUz.png)

**Summary**

## Positive Indicators:

**Positive Indicators:** U.S. Dollar Index, Exchange net flows, Wallets holding 1,000+ BTC

**Negative Indicators:** Bitcoin Spot ETF flows, Bitcoin dominance, Open interest

## Overall Assessment:

Trump’s tariff deferral announcement triggered a short-term rebound, potentially amplified by a weakening dollar. However, for this rally to evolve into a sustained uptrend, significant catalysts — such as heightened rate cut expectations or renewed ETF inflows — are needed to drive capital back into the market. Given the lack of clear directionality at present, maintaining a conservative stance is advisable.

Trump’s tariff deferral spurs short-term rebound, but capital inflows remain weak for trend reversal — 3rd Week of April 2025

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Trump’s tariff deferral spurs short-term rebound, but capital inflows remain weak for trend reversal — 3rd Week of April 2025.  The Weekly Report is o...