The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official League of Traders Telegram channel.

Here are our notes for the fourth week of April!

1. Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart

Bitcoin surged past $88,000, rebounding from a prior decline, but is currently encountering resistance. The ongoing net outflows from Bitcoin Spot ETFs suggest that the current strength is driven more by a weakening U.S. dollar than by robust buying interest in cryptocurrencies.

A positive development is Bitcoin’s tendency to rise in tandem with gold, which is currently hitting record highs as a recognized safe-haven asset. Historically, increases in M2 money supply, which reached an all-time high this first quarter, tend to reflect in cryptocurrency prices approximately 60 days later. Consequently, some analysts speculate that cryptocurrencies could hit new highs in June or July.

BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The block)

Last week, Bitcoin saw a modest rebound, while Ethereum slipped from $1,600 to the $1,500 level, reflecting a slight decline. The lack of supporting trading volume and continued outflows from Spot Ethereum ETFs make a strong bullish trend unlikely compared to other cryptocurrencies. However, Ethereum’s listing in Spot ETFs positions it to potentially absorb liquidity from traditional asset markets. Should Bitcoin rally, capital inflows into Ethereum Spot ETFs could trigger a sharp rebound.

ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The block)

Bitcoin dominance continued its upward trajectory, rising from 63.76% last week to 63.99% this week, underscoring Bitcoin’s perception as a relatively safe asset within the cryptocurrency market. While altcoins like XRP and Solana saw modest rebounds amid ETF listing prospects, Ethereum’s weakness as a leading altcoin has fueled Bitcoin’s dominance. A decline in dominance and renewed capital flows into altcoins would be necessary for the broader cryptocurrency market to signal a bullish shift.

Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)

2. Major Economic Indicators

• US Bond Yields

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, after climbing to nearly 4.6% from 4.356% last week, balanced itself slightly to 4.362% this week. Yields have displayed a mixed trend, heavily influenced by Federal Reserve policy. While the Trump administration advocates for rate cuts, the Fed remains cautious, suggesting that this mixed trend may persist in the near term.

US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)

• US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) extended its decline, dropping from below 100 last week to 98.303 this week. Trump’s public criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell via social media, coupled with renewed pressure for rate cuts, has heightened concerns about the Fed’s independence. This uncertainty has driven the dollar to its lowest level in three years, amplifying monetary policy volatility.

US Dollar Index (TradingView)

• US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The US100 index fell from 18,767 last week to 18,096 this week. Until the resolution of Trump’s tariff war, U.S. equities are likely to remain volatile, with a bias toward weakness or a mixed trend.

US100 (TradingView)

• Gold Futures

Amid uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies and global trade tensions, international gold prices, a quintessential safe-haven asset, soared past $3,300 per ounce, setting a new all-time high. The dollar’s weakness has been a key driver of this surge, as a depreciating dollar typically boosts dollar-denominated gold prices. Concerns are mounting about the sustainability of gold’s bullish run.

Gold Futures (TradingView)

3. Bitcoin Market Data

• MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z-Score edged up from 1.85 last week to 1.87 this week, reflecting a modest recovery from its recent sharp decline. However, this level remains insufficient to signal a trend reversal.

Indicator Explanation: The MVRV Z-Score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market cap and realized cap, divided by standard deviation, offering insight into whether Bitcoin is over- or undervalued. A score below 0 indicates significant undervaluation, while the overheated zone during the 2021 all-time high exceeded 6.

Bitcoin: MVRV Z-Score(Glassnode)

• aSOPR

The aSOPR indicator dipped slightly from 1.018 last week to 1.007 this week. Given a brief dip below 1 last week, it is premature to interpret this as a definitive shift to a bullish trend.

Indicator Explanation: SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) divides the price of Bitcoin at the time of spending by its price when received. A value below 1 suggests a bear market, while above 1 indicates a bull market. aSOPR refines this by filtering out insignificant transactions within an hour, providing a more precise metric.

Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)

• Open Interest

Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures surged from $21.90 billion last week to $23.64 billion this week, while the estimated leverage ratio increased from 0.217 to 0.227. This rise in open interest heightens the risk of short-term corrections in a bearish market, necessitating caution.

Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)

Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)

4. On-chain data

• Exchange inflows and outflows

Bitcoin’s net outflow trend from exchanges persists, signaling a positive development for the market. This sustained outflow suggests potential for favorable market shifts.

Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change (Glassnode)

• Number of Whale Wallets

Wallets holding 10,000+ BTC have remained at low levels following a recent decline, showing no signs of recovery. Conversely, wallets holding 1,000+ BTC surged past 2,100 but have since fallen below this threshold. Given the correlation between 1,000+ BTC wallet trends and short-term price movements, caution is warranted for potential short-term corrections.

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)

5. Last Week’s Major News

**Gold Hits Record High Amid Tariff War; International Spot Prices Soar **Amid U.S. tariff policy uncertainty and global trade tensions, gold — a premier safe-haven asset — continued its meteoric rise, briefly surpassing $3,350 per ounce to set a new all-time high.

**Dollar Falls to Three-Year Low; Won-Dollar Exchange Rate Fluctuates Around 1,420 **President Donald Trump’s pointed criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and renewed calls for rate cuts drove the dollar to its lowest level in three years. However, the Korean won has failed to rebound due to global risk aversion, concerns over low growth, and potential yuan appreciation.

**XRP Emerges as Top Altcoin Candidate for ETF Approval **According to a recent report by data provider Kaiko, XRP leads with 10 ETF applications, outpacing other tokens. Solana follows with five applications, positioning it as the second-most likely candidate.

6. Major economic events

Major economic events last week

Last week’s U.S. macroeconomic indicators generally exceeded expectations, alleviating concerns about a recession and enabling assets to maintain relatively stable prices with limited volatility.

Major Economic Events for the 3rd week of April 2025 (Investing.com)

This week’s major economic events

The fourth week of April features no major events, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and initial jobless claims data slated for release. However, beyond scheduled indicators, remarks by Fed Chair Powell and President Trump on tariffs and interest rates are expected to exert additional influence on market prices.

Major Economic Events for the 4th week of April 2025 (Investing.com)

Summary

Positive Indicators: U.S. Dollar Index, Gold prices, Exchange net flows

Negative Indicators: Bitcoin Spot ETF flows, Bitcoin dominance, Open interest

Overall Assessment: Rising gold prices and a weakening dollar could provide a tailwind for Bitcoin, fostering some optimistic outlooks. However, the cryptocurrency market faces lingering uncertainties, such as rising open interest. Consequently, a strategy of modest spot Bitcoin purchases may be safer than large-scale futures positions.