The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official League of Traders Telegram channel.

Here are our notes for the first week of May!

1. Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart

In the final week of April, Bitcoin surged from the $85,000s to almost $95,000, continuing its bullish momentum. This rally was primarily driven by an easing global macroeconomic environment and improved investor sentiment following key policy statements. Signs of de-escalation in U.S.-China tariff tensions bolstered demand for risk assets, while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s mention of potential reappointment reinforced expectations of monetary policy continuity, providing market relief. This sentiment, coupled with a rebound in equities, a weakening dollar, and a decline in gold prices, positively influenced Bitcoin.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin Spot ETF, IBIT, recorded a single-day inflow of approximately $971 million, marking the second-highest daily inflow in its history. This underscores the sustained strength of institutional capital inflows, lending support to Bitcoin’s short-term bullish outlook.

BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The Block)

Ethereum rebounded sharply from the $1,500s last week to the $1,800s, reflecting strong upward momentum. Spot ETF flows have shifted from outflows to inflows, signaling improving investor sentiment. While the short-term trend is robust, medium- to long-term uncertainties persist. Technical indicators and market sentiment suggest Ethereum may attempt to reclaim the $2,000 level in the near term, but sustaining an uptrend beyond this threshold will require additional intrinsic catalysts within the Ethereum network.

ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The Block)

Bitcoin dominance edged up from 63.99% last week to 64.24% this week, maintaining a gradual upward trajectory. However, it has not decisively breached 65%, remaining within a defined range. The stabilization of dominance is a positive signal for the broader cryptocurrency market, contributing to a favorable environment for digital assets in the short term.

Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)

2. Major Economic Indicators

• US Bond Yields

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined from 4.362% last week to 4.243% this week, reflecting a stable trend. As of the last week of April 2025, yields have hovered around 4.3%, fostering market relief and creating a supportive environment for risk assets. Amid rising political pressure on the Federal Reserve, expectations of rate cuts have resurfaced, fueling Bitcoin’s push toward $95,000. The sustainability of this rally will likely hinge on statements from Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which will be closely watched by investors.

US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)

• US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded from 98.303 last week to 99.148 this week, marking a temporary recovery. This uptick is attributed to Trump’s tariff de-escalation remarks and efforts to quell speculation about Fed Chair Powell’s dismissal, which alleviated some market uncertainty. Technically, the DXY formed a short-term low near 98 before reclaiming 99, signaling a potential bullish shift. However, in a medium-term context, this appears as a correction within a broader downtrend, and a full trend reversal remains premature. Should the DXY fail to breach 100 and resume its decline, it could provide additional upside momentum for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

US Dollar Index (TradingView)

• US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The Nasdaq 100 (US100) surged approximately 7.5% from 18,096 last week to 19,455, driven by a tech-led rally. Expectations of easing tariff tensions between the U.S. and China, in addition to reaffirmed Fed leadership, stability spurred a rapid recovery in risk asset demand. If the US100 maintains stability above 19,000, it could further amplify the upside potential for major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

US100 (TradingView)

• Gold Futures

International gold futures hit an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce but corrected to $3,321 due to profit-taking. This surge reflects heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainty and inflation hedging. However, as gold appears to have peaked and entered a consolidation phase, market attention is shifting toward alternative assets like Bitcoin. Notably, Bitcoin ETF inflows and price rallies have coincided with this period, suggesting a “baton-passing” flow of capital from gold to cryptocurrencies. Experts anticipate gold will likely consolidate near its highs rather than plummet, and a revival of risk asset sentiment could position Bitcoin as a beneficiary.

Gold Futures (TradingView)

3. Bitcoin Market Data

• MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z-Score rose from 1.845 last week to 2.28 this week, reflecting positive shifts in market sentiment. A score above 2.0 indicates an increase in coins held at a profit, signaling that Bitcoin is moving out of an undervalued zone. However, it remains well below the 5–7 range associated with overheated markets, suggesting room for further upside in the medium to long term.

Indicator Explanation: The MVRV Z-Score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market cap and realized cap, divided by standard deviation, offering insight into whether Bitcoin is over- or undervalued. A score below 0 indicates significant undervaluation, while the overheated zone during the 2021 all-time high exceeded 6.

Bitcoin: MVRV Z Score (Glassnode)

• aSOPR

The aSOPR indicator climbed from 1.007 last week to 1.036 this week, indicating that sales are yielding profits, a positive sign of sustained bullish momentum. Its consistent maintenance above 1 throughout the week reinforces Bitcoin’s upward trend.

Indicator Explanation: SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) divides the price of Bitcoin at the time of spending by its price when received. A value below 1 suggests a bear market, while above 1 indicates a bull market. aSOPR refines this by filtering out insignificant transactions within an hour, providing a more precise metric.

Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)

• Open Interest

Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures jumped from $26.55 billion last week to $30.57 billion this week, while the estimated leverage ratio rose from 0.244 to 0.260, reflecting increased leverage in the market. This surge signals heightened investor optimism but also raises concerns about volatility due to excessive leverage. While the market is forming strong momentum, the growing risk of price swings necessitates cautious positioning.

Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)

Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)

4. On-chain data

• Exchange inflows and outflows

Bitcoin’s net outflow trend from exchanges persists, indicating that investors are favoring long-term holding. This reduction in selling pressure is a positive signal, potentially fostering a supportive environment for Bitcoin’s price in the future.

Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change(Glassnode)

• Number of Whale Wallets

Wallets holding 10,000+ BTC have shown a slight rebound after hitting recent lows, while wallets holding 1,000+ BTC have declined modestly after forming a short-term peak last week. This suggests a partial recovery in large investor sentiment, though mid-tier whales are exhibiting profit-taking behavior. The market reflects a mix of cautious buying and adjustment pressures.

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1K or more (Glassnode)

5. Last Week’s Major News

Brazil Launches World’s First XRP ETF

Brazil introduced the world’s first XRP-based ETF, “XRPH11,” managed by Hashdex and listed on the B3 stock exchange. In the U.S., the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved XRP futures ETFs, and market attention is now focused on potential approval of XRP spot ETFs, following Brazil’s precedent. Approval of spot products could significantly enhance institutional access to XRP, impacting its price and market structure.

BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Sees Over $1 Billion in Single-Day Inflows

BlackRock’s Bitcoin Spot ETF, IBIT, recorded approximately $1 billion in net inflows in a single day on April 28, with $971 million reported. This marks the second-largest daily inflow since the ETF’s launch in January 2024.

Standard Chartered: Bitcoin to Hit $120,000 in Q2 2025

Jeff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, forecasted that Bitcoin could reach an all-time high of $120,000 in Q2 2025. He cited waning confidence in traditional assets amid economic uncertainty, renewed U.S. investor interest following Trump’s tariff deferral, and growing institutional demand as key drivers.

6. Major economic events

Major economic events last week

Last week’s economic indicators showed manufacturing recovery, robust housing demand, and labor market stability, though slowdowns in services and existing home sales raised concerns. Overall, a gradual expansionary trend prevails, creating a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Major Economic Events for the 4th week of April 2025 (Investing.com)

This week’s major economic events

The fourth week of April will see the release of critical indicators influencing Fed policy, including GDP growth, employment, and inflation data. Weaker-than-expected data could amplify expectations of monetary easing, fostering a supportive environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, stronger-than-anticipated inflation or employment figures may heighten concerns about sustained tightening, potentially increasing short-term volatility.

Major Economic Events for the 1st week of May 2025 (Investing.com)

Summary

Positive Indicators: Bitcoin Spot ETF flows, Bitcoin dominance, aSOPR, Exchange net flows

Negative Indicators: Open interest, Estimated leverage ratio

Overall Assessment:

In the final week of April, Bitcoin rallied to almost $95,000, propelled by expectations of tariff de-escalation and Fed leadership stability. Robust institutional inflows into BlackRock’s ETF and sustained Bitcoin net outflows from exchanges, alongside bullish on-chain metrics, support this uptrend. While a favorable short-term outlook prevails, elevated leverage raises volatility risks in the $95,000–$100,000 range, warranting caution.