![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/1*RAwU3f7SnJIR6L4Z-utgpw.png)

The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official [League of Traders Telegram channel](https://t.me/leagueoftraders_official).

Here are our notes for the second week of May!

 1. **Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart**

Bitcoin extended its robust rally, climbing from $95,000 last week to $98,500 this week, posting a weekly gain of approximately 4.57%. Rising trading volume further underscores the strength of this uptrend, fueling market optimism about a potential breakthrough above $100,000.

Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju, who previously suggested the Bitcoin cycle had ended, has indicated that surpassing $100,000 would signal the start of a new cycle distinct from historical patterns. Consistent inflows into Bitcoin Spot ETFs reflect growing institutional confidence, supporting the medium- to long-term bullish outlook. Next week, Bitcoin is likely to attempt a breach of $100,000, with potential to reach $104,000 in the short term if successful. However, profit-taking may emerge at these levels, and a correction to the $93,000–$95,000 range remains possible, warranting cautious positioning.

![BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*5JU4S7YgfZg8veDA.png)

![Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The block)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*ZrhoIHhcz1KEmCmI.png)

Ethereum saw a modest uptick from the low $1,800s, achieving a weekly gain of approximately 1.69%. However, its rally has been less pronounced than Bitcoin’s, with weaker market leadership. Despite forming a short-term bottom around $1,385 and maintaining a close above $1,800 this week, Ethereum’s recovery lacks momentum due to limited Spot ETF inflows. This suggests a consolidation phase rather than a sharp decline, with next week’s price action likely to fluctuate between $1,750 and $1,920. Without a clear bullish catalyst, a sideways trend is expected to persist. New entries should adopt a staggered buying approach, while existing holders may benefit from monitoring for medium-term rebound potential.

![ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*5jdIA1kDBWmHF6n4.png)

![Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The block)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*d3oI5xAGYy6XEaNN.png)

Bitcoin dominance reached 65.42%, its highest level since 2021, reflecting a clear concentration of capital in Bitcoin. This trend is driven by institutional inflows via Spot ETFs and a preference for Bitcoin’s relative stability over altcoins. Short-term, dominance could climb to 67%, potentially capping altcoin upside. Investors are advised to maintain a Bitcoin-centric strategy or wait for signs of a dominance reversal before increasing altcoin exposure.

![Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*360VBWD8gD5T6F9e.png)

**2. Major Economic Indicators**

* US Bond Yields

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stabilized at 4.28%, maintaining a steady range in the mid-4.2% region. This reflects market caution regarding the Federal Reserve’s rate cut timeline, amid mixed signals from softening inflation and resilient employment data. Yields are likely to oscillate within a 4.2–4.35% range in the near term, fostering a relatively supportive environment for risk assets. However, a rise above 4.4% could tighten liquidity, exerting pressure on asset markets, necessitating ongoing vigilance.

![US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*gRWm7J7sLnbpuN30.png)

* US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) edged up from 99.148 last week to 99.638 this week but remains below 100, consolidating in a short-term range. This reflects subdued dollar demand amid a broader risk-on sentiment and anticipation around Fed policy. The recent strength in Bitcoin and equities aligns with a typical asset rotation cycle driven by dollar weakness. Technically, the DXY’s failure to breach 100 after rebounding from 98 suggests continued range-bound movement, which could benefit risk assets in the near term.

![US Dollar Index (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*wp572i2jwfNR39BV.png)

* US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The Nasdaq 100 index reclaimed the 20,000 level, sustaining a strong rally driven by stable U.S. yields, a weaker dollar, and positive earnings from major tech firms. Continued optimism in AI and semiconductor sectors has fueled this uptrend, reflecting a broader recovery in risk asset sentiment. However, profit-taking may emerge around 20,000, and a breakout above 20,500 will be critical to sustain the bullish momentum.

![US100 (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*sJejXkviwBHL52HN.png)

* Gold Futures

Gold futures reclaimed $3,400, reaffirming their bullish trend amid dollar weakness, stable U.S. yields, and persistent global economic uncertainty. Steady physical demand from central banks and ETFs suggests this rally is structurally driven rather than speculative. The $3,500 level may act as a psychological resistance in the short term.

![Gold Futures (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*vY2Mar1hq-HWi7cu.png)

**3. Bitcoin Market Data**

* MVRV Z-score

Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score rose slightly from 2.28 to 2.33, indicating a gradual shift toward a higher valuation range. While still below the overbought threshold of 3, this suggests room for further upside and a healthy recovery from undervalued levels.

*Indicator Explanation*: The MVRV Z-Score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market cap and realized cap, divided by standard deviation, offering insight into whether Bitcoin is over- or undervalued. A score below 0 indicates significant undervaluation, while the overheated zone during the 2021 all-time high exceeded 6.

![Bitcoin: MVRV Z Score (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*6dg_895xsgujm9Qb.png)

* aSOPR

The aSOPR indicator ticked up to 1.037 from 1.036 last week, maintaining above 1 throughout the period. This reflects a preference for holding over selling despite profitable conditions, signaling a stable, spot-driven uptrend rather than a speculative spike. The consistent aSOPR above 1, unlike past cycles with sharp corrections, bolsters the sustainability of the current rally.

*Indicator Explanation*: SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) divides the price of Bitcoin at the time of spending by its price when received. A value below 1 suggests a bear market, while above 1 indicates a bull market. aSOPR refines this by filtering out insignificant transactions within an hour, providing a more precise metric. \

![Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*OAlPdJfiENoHP8D9.png)

* Open Interest

Bitcoin futures open interest dipped slightly to $30.43 billion, with the estimated leverage ratio falling to 0.233. This reflects a stable, spot-driven rally with reduced overheating risks, driven by ETF inflows rather than short-term leverage. This structure is a positive signal for sustained upside.

![Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*jsuqAGcwEburvV4V.png)

![Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*uDtUtPNStcWn-1Rx.png)

**4. On-chain data**

* Exchange inflows and outflows

Bitcoin’s net outflow trend from exchanges persisted, signaling strengthening long-term holding and storage demand. This reduction in selling pressure is a bullish indicator, potentially fostering a supportive price environment.

![Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*nmWA3bHcoVsrJhBi.png)

* Number of Whale Wallets

Wallets holding 10,000+ BTC, after a prolonged decline, showed a modest rebound in May, suggesting renewed optimism among major investors. Wallets holding 1,000+ BTC have maintained a clear uptrend since March, reflecting increased accumulation by institutional and mid-tier investors.

![Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*YIB0X2JZQEMGdOQE.png)

![Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1K or more (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*5sv77BDYx8YelTpn.png)

**5. Last Week’s Major News**

**Bitcoin Dominance Hits Highest Level Since 2021
**Bitcoin dominance surpassed 65%, reaching its highest level since 2021, driven by its perceived stability amid geopolitical uncertainty. Coinbureau CEO Nic Puckrin outlined conditions for an altcoin season: Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high, dominance falling below 54%, and U.S. Federal Reserve quantitative easing.

**Fed Expected to Hold Rates Despite Trump Pressure
**According to CBS, FedWatch estimates a 97% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark rate at 4.25–4.5%, unchanged since December 2024. The FOMC’s June 6–7 meeting will announce the decision, with the Fed likely to uphold its cautious stance despite Trump’s calls for rate cuts.

**Ethereum’s Dominance Wanes as Layer-1 Competition Intensifies
**Nansen CEO Alex Svanevik noted that the Layer-1 blockchain ecosystem has entered an era of “open competition.” Ethereum retains a 51% market share with $52 billion in total value locked (TVL), down from 96% in 2021, as Solana, Sui, and Binance Smart Chain gain traction.

**Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Could Hit $150,000 in 2025
**Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, in a Crypto Banter interview, predicted Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of 2025. He cited widespread fear, uncertainty, and doubt, suggesting central banks will resort to money supply expansion in this crisis environment.

**6. Major economic events**

**Major economic events last week**

Last week’s economic indicators showed manufacturing recovery, robust housing demand, and labor market stability, though slowdowns in services and existing home sales raised concerns. Overall, a gradual expansionary trend prevails, supporting risk assets like Bitcoin.

![Major Economic Events for the 1st week of May 2025 (Investing.com)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*wIVgiRd4mgTifFY8.png)

**This week’s major economic events**

The second week of May features critical indicators influencing Fed policy, including GDP, employment, and inflation data. Weaker-than-expected data could amplify expectations of monetary easing, fostering a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, stronger-than-anticipated figures may heighten concerns about sustained tightening, potentially increasing short-term volatility.

![Major Economic Events for the 2nd week of May 2025 (Investing.com)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*mrggxhxw7vEGRekw.png)

**Summary**

**Positive Indicators:** Spot ETF inflows, MVRV Z-Score, aSOPR, Exchange net flows

**Negative Indicators:** Bitcoin dominance, Open interest levels

**Overall Assessment:** Bitcoin’s market exhibited predominantly positive trends this week, with robust on-chain and market indicators such as stable MVRV Z-Score and aSOPR gains, sustained exchange net outflows, and rising mid-to-large whale wallet counts reinforcing a spot-driven uptrend. External factors, including stable yields, a weaker dollar, and strength in the Nasdaq and gold markets, further bolster a risk-on environment. However, elevated open interest and the upcoming Fed rate decision introduce volatility risks. A strategy of buying on dips is likely to outperform chasing momentum in the near term.

Sustained uptrend driven by Spot Market; Buying on Dips remains effective — 2nd Week of May 2025

League of Traders EN

Sustained uptrend driven by Spot Market; Buying on Dips remains effective — 2nd Week of May 2025.  The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators ...