The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official League of Traders Telegram channel.

Here are our notes for the fourth week of May!

1. Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart

This week, Bitcoin attempted to retest $107,000 but faced strong resistance, resulting in limited gains and a sideways trend. While trading volume has slightly declined, the market appears to be in a consolidation phase, with the upward trendline remaining intact. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, including IBIT and FBTC, continue to record stable net inflows, supporting the uptrend from a supply-demand perspective. In the short term, Bitcoin is expected to trade within a $105,000–$107,000 range. A breakout above this zone could open the door to further gains, while a strategy of staggered buying and monitoring technical support levels is advisable.

BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The Block)

Ethereum has stabilized at around $2,500 following its recent surge, forming a consolidation pattern with a modest weekly gain of approximately 0.86%. Technically, the uptrend remains intact, but declining trading volume and stagnant or slightly negative Spot ETF flows could constrain upside momentum. The $2,600 level will be a critical threshold for gauging further gains, and maintaining flexibility in response to a potential breakout is recommended. A failure to breach $2,600 may reinforce the current sideways trend.

ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The Block)

Bitcoin dominance exhibited volatility, briefly dropping to 62.5% before recovering to the 64% range. The initial decline was driven by short-term altcoin strength, but Bitcoin’s renewed price gains have redirected capital flows toward it. Dominance remains within an uptrend, suggesting Bitcoin will likely maintain stronger market leadership over altcoins in the near term.

Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)

2. Major Economic Indicators

• US Bond Yields

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to approximately 4.48%, nearing its year-to-date high. This reflects market expectations of prolonged high interest rates, prompting sales of long-term bonds. Yields at this level may pressure rate-sensitive assets, and a sustained move above 4.5% could signal tighter monetary conditions, impacting risk asset flows. Close monitoring of yield trends and Fed commentary is essential.

US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)

• US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell below 100, reaching 99.6, with a weekly decline of approximately 0.37%. This retreat follows a limited short-term rebound, reinforcing the medium-term downtrend amid fading rate hike expectations, recovering risk assets, and rising non-dollar asset demand. A continued weaker dollar could foster a supportive environment for cryptocurrencies and commodities.

US Dollar Index (TradingView)

• US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The Nasdaq 100 index consolidated near its highs, closing at 21,291 after a strong rally. Short-term overheating and potential profit-taking may cap gains, but optimism in AI and semiconductor sectors sustains the medium-term uptrend. Rising U.S. yields could pose a headwind for tech stocks, warranting caution.

US100 (TradingView)

• Gold Futures

International gold prices stabilized above $3,200, successfully rebounding to reclaim $3,300. While short-term buying has supported this recovery, rising U.S. yields and potential dollar strength may limit upside. Long-term, geopolitical uncertainty and physical demand continue to underpin gold, with the $3,300–$3,400 range serving as a key pivot for future direction.

Gold Futures (TradingView)

3. Bitcoin Market Data

• MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z-Score rose to approximately 2.5, signaling Bitcoin’s entry into the early stages of a higher valuation range. This indicates many investors are holding positions at a profit, reflecting a positive recovery in on-chain profitability. While not yet in overheated territory, historical cycles suggest caution as the Z-Score approaches 3.5, where correction risks increase. The current level supports a sustained uptrend, but monitoring for overheating signals is advisable.

Indicator Explanation: The MVRV Z-Score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market cap and realized cap, divided by standard deviation, offering insight into whether Bitcoin is over- or undervalued. A score below 0 indicates significant undervaluation, while the overheated zone during the 2021 all-time high exceeded 6.

Bitcoin: MVRV Z Score (Glassnode)

• aSOPR

Bitcoin’s aSOPR indicator remained consistently above 1, signaling that most transactions are profitable. This reflects investor preference for holding over selling, a positive sign that the uptrend is driven by robust supply-demand dynamics rather than speculative spikes. Historically, stable aSOPR levels above 1 have supported sustained bullish phases, reinforcing Bitcoin’s medium-term upside potential.

Indicator Explanation: SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) divides the price of Bitcoin at the time of spending by its price when received. A value below 1 suggests a bear market, while above 1 indicates a bull market. aSOPR refines this by filtering out insignificant transactions within an hour, providing a more precise metric.

Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)

• Open Interest

Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest surged, reflecting strong inflows into long positions, while the estimated leverage ratio (ELR) rose slightly but remained stable. This suggests the rally is supported by healthy position-building and spot-driven demand rather than excessive speculation. However, the growing absolute size of open interest increases potential volatility, necessitating vigilance.

Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)

Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)

4. On-chain data

• Exchange inflows and outflows

Bitcoin’s net outflow trend from exchanges persisted, indicating investors are withdrawing assets for long-term holding. This reduces selling pressure and, combined with Spot ETF inflows, supports a structurally sound, spot-driven uptrend.

Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change (Glassnode)

• Number of Whale Wallets

Wallets holding 10,000+ BTC, after a sustained decline, showed a modest rebound, while wallets holding 1,000+ BTC surged significantly, driving Bitcoin’s rally. The rise in mid-tier whale activity signals robust accumulation, though the recovery in ultra-large wallets suggests cautious optimism.

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1K or more (Glassnode)

5. Last Week’s Major News

U.S. Senate Effectively Passes Stablecoin Legislation The U.S. Senate passed the cloture vote for the “Genius Act,” a stablecoin regulatory bill, marking the final procedural step before formal passage. This legislation integrates dollar-pegged stablecoin issuance and circulation into the regulatory framework, positioning the crypto industry for its first major legislative milestone.

Bitcoin Touches $107K, Eyes New All-Time High; Altcoins Mixed Cryptocurrency market capitalization and Bitcoin dominance continued to rise. Bitcoin remains bullish, poised to retest its all-time high, driven by institutional demand and U.S. fiscal uncertainty. Altcoins showed mixed performance, with limited market impact from SEC ETF approval delays. The Senate’s support for the Genius Act bolstered market sentiment.

Japan’s 40-Year Bond Yield Hits 20-Year High; PM Warns of “Worse Than Greece” Japan’s 40-year bond yield rose to 3.46%, a 20-year high, signaling rising borrowing costs and fiscal strain. Japan faces a triple challenge of rising long-term yields, economic slowdown, and fiscal instability.

6. Major economic events

Major economic events last week

U.S. economic indicators last week reflected a classic slowdown, with easing inflation offset by weakening demand. While rate cut expectations have risen, concerns about slowing growth are growing, creating a mixed outlook for risk assets. Short-term liquidity expectations may benefit cryptocurrencies, but medium- to long-term real economic performance will be a key determinant.

Major Economic Events for the 3rd week of May 2025 (Investing.com)

This week’s major economic events

This week features the release of initial jobless claims and Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for services and manufacturing. These indicators could influence yield trends and require close attention.

Major Economic Events for the 4th week of May 2025 (Investing.com)

Summary Positive Indicators: Bitcoin Spot ETF inflows, Wallets holding 1,000+ BTC, aSOPR

Negative Indicators: Bitcoin dominance, U.S. 10-year Treasury yieldl, U.S. Dollar Index, MVRV Z-Score, Open interest levels

Overall Assessment: Bitcoin’s market maintained its bullish momentum this week, supported by positive on-chain metrics, including sustained aSOPR above 1, expanding exchange net outflows, and rising 1,000+ BTC whale wallets, signaling a healthy spot-driven uptrend. However, rising U.S. yields and an approaching MVRV Z-Score overheat zone raise short-term correction risks. Traders are advised to ride the uptrend but prioritize staggered buying during pullbacks over chasing highs, particularly near resistance levels, to navigate potential volatility.