![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/1*dnqcHWTmxFHrEU9a58c0BA.png)

The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official [League of Traders Telegram channel](https://t.me/leagueoftraders_official).

Here are our notes for the fifth week of May!

 1. **Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart**

This week, Bitcoin briefly hit a high of $111,980 before undergoing a short-term correction, retreating to the mid-$107,000 range, but it continues to maintain a bullish trend. Trading volume has somewhat slowed, but support above the 7-day moving average (MA7) has been confirmed, and the technical trend remains upward. At the same time, spot ETF inflows have continued a steady net inflow trend in the fourth week of May, with particularly notable inflows into IBIT (BlackRock). This indicates that institutional demand remains robust, suggesting sustained buying pressure even during the correction phase. In the short term, if support around $107,000 holds, a retest of the $110,000–$112,000 range is possible, but a break below could lead to a pullback to the low $105,000 range. Overall, the bullish trend remains intact, but with the market entering a resistance zone due to overheated gains, caution is warranted for short-term volatility, and a staggered approach strategy seems effective at this point.

![BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*MTg72EcKFONYPGqs.png)

![Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The Block)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*_gkmpLQyHpsLqKkb.png)

Ethereum is forming a consolidation range around $2,500. After a short-term rally, Ethereum has entered a sideways phase with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Spot ETF flows have recorded slight inflows but lack clear directionality. For the time being, price movements are likely to remain limited and correlated with Bitcoin’s trend, and a short-term trading-focused approach seems preferable until a clear catalyst emerges.

![ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*pEGMl4bAJbgUM5OF.png)

![Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The Block)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*yRqW16MFXkXo5Dd6.png)

This week, Bitcoin dominance rose to 64.33%, indicating continued capital concentration in Bitcoin within the market. The rapid rebound after last week’s short-term decline reflects Bitcoin’s technical strength, spot ETF inflows, and a relative preference for Bitcoin as a safer asset compared to altcoins. As dominance approaches the 65% resistance level, its further rise will be a key factor in determining short-term altcoin trends. Investors should maintain a Bitcoin-focused strategy but consider increasing altcoin exposure if dominance falls back below 63%.

![Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*ZfMfY1buBUtopAKa.png)

**2. Major Economic Indicators**

* US Bond Yields

This week, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.50% before closing at 4.49%, maintaining a relatively high level. This reflects market concerns that recent stronger-than-expected employment and inflation data may delay the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts. Rising yields could act as a headwind for asset markets, particularly for growth assets like cryptocurrencies and tech stocks, potentially leading to short-term correction pressure. Investors should adopt a cautious approach to risk assets if yields exceed 4.6%.

![US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*jwJoaPiY6vijiNWF.png)

* US Dollar Index

This week, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to 98.7, continuing a bearish trend below the psychological support level of 100. This is interpreted as a result of mixed U.S. economic data and renewed expectations of rate cuts, aligning with strengthened risk-on sentiment in broader markets. A weaker dollar is generally favorable for alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold, with the 97 level acting as a key support if the decline continues.

![US Dollar Index (Trading View)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*RVoX4xR_y6JAIFNO.png)

* US100 (Nasdaq 100)

This week, the Nasdaq 100 (US100) hit strong resistance at 21,500 and corrected to 21,100, but the overall uptrend remains intact. The recent strength in U.S. tech stocks, driven by recovering sentiment in AI and semiconductor sectors, along with a weaker dollar and expectations of easing rates, has supported the index’s rise. While a short-term correction may continue, if the 21,000 level holds, another attempt to break 21,500 is likely. Given its classification as a risk asset, US100 is likely to move in tandem with Bitcoin.

![US100 (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*Nk0ReuqBxC3XoHCF.png)

* Gold Futures

This week, gold futures prices stabilized in the low-to-mid $3,300 range, maintaining last week’s rebound. Ongoing expectations of global rate cuts and a weaker U.S. dollar have sustained demand for gold, which remains an attractive safe-haven asset amid geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainty. In the short term, prices are likely to fluctuate between $3,280 and $3,400, with physical demand and central bank gold purchases being key factors for future trends.

![Gold Futures (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*MAsndRTgjCbrqSzg.png)

**3. Bitcoin Market Data**

* MVRV Z-score

This week, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score rose to approximately 2.5, suggesting the market is gradually approaching an overvalued zone. However, compared to the overheated zones of past cycles (typically Z-Score above 3), there is still room for growth, indicating a healthy uptrend. The fact that the Z-Score is rising alongside prices without a sharp correction reflects growing realized profits among investors, driven by spot buying rather than excessive speculation.

*Indicator Explanation*: The MVRV Z-Score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market cap and realized cap, divided by standard deviation, offering insight into whether Bitcoin is over- or undervalued. A score below 0 indicates significant undervaluation, while the overheated zone during the 2021 all-time high exceeded 6.

![Bitcoin: MVRV Z Score (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*ykIXlO5Qqx2dhCc9.png)

* aSOPR

The Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) has consistently remained above 1 this week, indicating that most Bitcoin transactions are occurring at a profit. This suggests investors are strengthening their holding strategies rather than realizing profits, supporting the view that the current uptrend is stable and driven by consistent profitability. Unlike past cycles, the aSOPR’s lack of a clear peak and its sideways movement at a steady level is a positive signal, indicating the market is not yet overheated and retains upside potential.

*Indicator Explanation*: SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) divides the price of Bitcoin at the time of spending by its price when received. A value below 1 suggests a bear market, while above 1 indicates a bull market. aSOPR refines this by filtering out insignificant transactions within an hour, providing a more precise metric.

![Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*7AoMaxbM4RQI-EK7.png)

* Open Interest

In the Bitcoin derivatives market, open interest in perpetual futures surpassed $37B this week, steadily increasing alongside rising prices, indicating active market participation. The estimated leverage ratio has slightly risen but remains stable below 0.25, suggesting limited concerns about short-term overheating. However, with open interest approaching the previous high of $44.5B, caution is warranted.

![Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*dzvvlMeZR1q0oeR_.png)

![Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*kRJdZmu274-UgtW8.png)

**4. On-chain data**

* Exchange inflows and outflows

This week, Bitcoin’s net exchange position change maintained a clear net outflow trend, indicating that investors are moving assets to external wallets, reinforcing a long-term holding tendency. The absence of significant selling pressure despite prices nearing short-term highs is a positive signal of market confidence, supporting expectations of a mid-to-long-term uptrend.

![Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*0EZhse0t0_f1cIpv.png)

* Number of Whale Wallets

The number of wallets holding 1,000+ BTC has shown a clear increase, indicating stronger accumulation by mid-to-large investors. Conversely, the number of ultra-large whale wallets holding 10,000+ BTC has slightly rebounded but remains at a low level. This suggests growing mid-term market confidence, while some large investors remain cautious. A simultaneous decline in both 10,000+ and 1,000+ BTC wallets could signal a need to reduce Bitcoin exposure.

![Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*yLJH0XJahdsBq6bf.png)

![Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1K or more (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*9hhlbTqwz4iDkKv0.png)

**5. Last Week’s Major News**

**Bitcoin Hits All-Time High**
On May 21, 2025, UTC, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $111,980 on Binance’s spot market. This is attributed to expectations of improved U.S. crypto regulations and sustained institutional inflows. Notably, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have increased for five consecutive weeks, driving the uptrend.

**Trump Media Plans $3B Raise for Crypto Investments**
Trump Media & Technology Group plans to raise $3 billion for investments in cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. The funds will come from $2 billion in new stock issuance and $1 billion in convertible bonds, aligning with President Trump’s policy to position the U.S. as a leader in digital assets.

**Texas Passes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill**
The Texas House passed a bill for a strategic Bitcoin reserve, aiming to hold Bitcoin in cold storage for at least five years to enhance economic resilience and diversify investment strategies. This positions Texas as a crypto-friendly state.

**6. Major economic events**

**Major economic events last week**

Last week’s U.S. economic data showed manufacturing and services PMI (52.3) and new home sales (743K) exceeding expectations, raising hopes for economic recovery. However, existing home sales and employment data (initial jobless claims at 227K) were somewhat weak. Rising crude oil inventories sparked demand slowdown concerns, but consumer and production indicators remained relatively strong overall.

![Major Economic Events for the 4th week of May 2025 (Investing.com)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*cUQIYKPOk-JBJPhh.png)

**This week’s major economic events**

This week, market attention will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which will provide insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. Whether the Q1 GDP growth rate remains at the expected -0.3% is also significant, as is the initial jobless claims data, which gauges labor market strength. The core PCE price index, announced on the 30th, is a key inflation metric for the Fed, and its outcome could shift expectations for future rate policies, impacting cryptocurrencies and risk assets broadly. This week is likely to provide critical clues about consumer sentiment, inflation pressures, and the Fed’s future stance.

![Major Economic Events for the 5th week of May 2025 (Investing.com)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*GtWDt5qH0qcRbQ8k.png)

**Summary**

Positive Indicators: Bitcoin all-time high, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, exchange net outflows, MVRV Z-Score, aSOPR, number of wallets holding 1,000+ BTC.

Negative Indicators: Rising Bitcoin dominance, U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, U.S. Dollar Index rebound, gold futures prices, increasing open interest.

**Overall Assessment:** The crypto market continues its Bitcoin-driven uptrend, supported by spot ETF inflows and improving on-chain metrics. However, rising Bitcoin dominance, signs of derivatives market overheating, and lackluster whale accumulation suggest potential short-term corrections. Investors should follow the mid-term bullish trend but remain cautious of altcoin weakness and volatility from interest rates and macroeconomic factors, adopting a staggered approach and risk management-focused strategy.

Bitcoin spot strength continues amid new all-time highs, but beware of near-term overheating — 5th week of May 2025

League of Traders EN

Bitcoin spot strength continues amid new all-time highs, but beware of near-term overheating — 5th week of May 2025.  The Weekly Report is our summary...