![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/1*Xla72efvElmgYJIxUjujQQ.png)

The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official [League of Traders Telegram channel](https://t.me/leagueoftraders_official).

Here are our notes for the fourth week of October!

 1. **Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart**

Bitcoin surged from $64,400 to $69,000 last week and currently sits at $67,200 following a slight correction. There has been a strong inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs, with a net inflow of $371 million recorded on October 15 alone through U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs. Additionally, Bitcoin network activity is increasing, and Tether’s market capitalization has reached an all-time high, providing substantial support for continued growth. However, caution is warranted, as the size of outstanding contracts is also at an all-time high, elevating market risk. Details on outstanding contracts will be discussed separately below.

![BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*Uqy-SgAG_6_uAthw.png)

![Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The block)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*MUQgbcME_HnPOME7.png)

Ethereum saw a significant increase, climbing from $2,500 last week to $2,670 this week. Ethereum spot ETFs have experienced a shift towards net inflows for the first time in a considerable period. Ethereum’s supply has increased slightly, from 120.38M last week to 120.39M this week. On-chain activity is intensifying, and growing demand from whale investors is fueling optimism for major altcoins, including Ethereum.

![ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*1_RFRh-jQBYetzh3.png)

![Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The block)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*iMeqSaKxx8NfqsPA.png)

Bitcoin dominance rose briefly from 58.13% last week to 59% but has since eased to 58.31%. While dominance spiked in line with Bitcoin’s rise, it has pulled back due to the strength of major altcoins like Ethereum. If Bitcoin is unable to sustain its rally and break through its all-time high, there is potential for a temporary bullish trend among altcoins.

![Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*KybTVrkMawNowUB_.png)

**2. Major Economic Indicators**

* US Bond Yields

Last week, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury increased from 4.10% to 4.16%. As inflation-related macroeconomic indicators in the U.S. exceeded expectations, inflation concerns have intensified, leading to a decline in market expectations for a potential interest rate cut this year. If interest rates do not stabilize at current levels, it could negatively impact asset markets.

![US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*S9rnjZXRyZ2HU66s.png)

* US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index rose significantly from 102.996 last week to 103.857 this week. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields, combined with escalating instability in the Middle East, has increased demand for the U.S. dollar, which is seen as a relatively safe asset.

![US Dollar Index (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*29949YNMBfAOMOMH.png)

* US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The US100 index moved sideways, slipping slightly from 20,200 last week to 20,190. Despite rising Treasury yields, the Nasdaq 100 index held steady, supported by major technology stocks such as Nvidia. Additionally, the stronger U.S. dollar had a positive effect on the stock market, as dollar-denominated assets benefitted. However, if the trend of rising Treasury yields persists, it is likely to have a negative impact on the U.S. stock market over time.

![US100 (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*5_Xnm7rtKO6cjfZ7.png)

* Gold Futures

Gold futures reached a new all-time high, climbing from $2,650 to $2,720 this week. With growing international instability and analyses suggesting that the U.S. stock market may have peaked, gold is increasingly favored as a safe-haven asset. It will be interesting to see if this upward momentum in gold prices can also spark a rally in Bitcoin.

![Gold Futures (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*B27L953eO-Zy8LFt.png)

**3. Bitcoin Market Data**

* MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z-Score broke through the critical threshold of 2, rising from 1.92 last week to 2.05 this week. Having reached this important inflection point, Bitcoin now has a strong chance of continuing its rally to challenge its all-time high. If the MVRV Z-Score stays above 2, there is considerable potential for further price increases.

* Indicator explanation: The MVRV Z-score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and its realized value, divided by the standard deviation. It serves as an indicator to assess whether Bitcoin’s market capitalization is overvalued or undervalued. A score below 0 suggests that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued, while a score of 6 or higher, as seen during the all-time high (ATH) in 2021, indicates an overheated market.

![Bitcoin: MVRV Z Score(Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*5ex-0Nc9YhD7TZfe.png)

* aSOPR

The aSOPR indicator rose sharply from 1.030 last week to 1.135 this week. Over the past week, aSOPR has consistently stayed above 1, signaling a sustained bullish trend. However, this week’s level of 1.135 represents a significant spike, which typically precedes increased price volatility. Therefore, caution is advised as the likelihood of heightened risk increases.

* SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, is calculated by dividing the price at which Bitcoin was previously received by the price at the time of transfer. A SOPR below 1 indicates a bearish market, while a value above 1 indicates a bullish market. The aSOPR is an adjusted version that excludes short-term transactions (within one hour), providing a more accurate representation.

![Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*IgpUgY7gWU0l3lHR.png)

* Open Interest

Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest reached a new high, increasing from $18.72 billion last week to $19.75 billion. The estimated leverage ratio for perpetual futures also rose from 0.206 to 0.209. Both figures are nearing critical levels — $18 billion in outstanding contracts and a leverage ratio of 0.210 — that have previously triggered significant market volatility.

![Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*Pm_TALxCllOYSZNZ.png)

![Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*gW22jKy-5lLnRPea.png)

**4. On-chain data**

* Exchange inflows and outflows

The ongoing trend of net Bitcoin outflows from exchanges is expected to play a positive role in the market. The continued outflow advantage, evident since Q3, could act as a catalyst for further price increases.

![Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change(Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*T7VxBc4LEZXUn86l.png)

* Number of Whale Wallets

The number of whale wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC continues to decline, maintaining a negative trend. In contrast, the number of wallets holding over 1,000 BTC has shown a notable increase. It will be important to monitor whether smaller holders or large whales will have a stronger influence on Bitcoin’s price movement going forward.

![Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*4G7H6CATwYYVVirf.png)

![Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1K or more (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*PV-PrvG7A7hLQ2xL.png)

**5. Last Week’s Major News**

* **Morgan Stanley Recommends CIOs Invest in Bitcoin Mining Stocks, Citing Energy Infrastructure Expansion Opportunities**

Morgan Stanley’s global research team has advised chief investment officers (CIOs) of major asset management firms to consider adding Bitcoin mining stocks to their portfolios. According to reports from October 14, Matthew Siegel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, shared this briefing on social media. Morgan Stanley emphasized that the increased demand for power production at data centers, driven by industries like Bitcoin mining, presents new investment opportunities, particularly in high-energy consumption sectors.

* **Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin to Reach New All-Time High Before U.S. Presidential Election**

On October 15, international media reported that Bitcoin’s ongoing upward trend could lead to a new all-time high before the U.S. presidential election. Jeff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, predicted that Bitcoin could reach $73,800, attributing the potential rise to several factors: the continued increase in U.S. Treasury yields, growing interest in Bitcoin spot ETFs, and the possibility of former President Donald Trump being re-elected.

* **Tether’s Market Cap Surpasses KRW 164 Trillion for the First Time**

Tether (USDT), the leading stablecoin by market share, has surpassed 120 billion USD in market capitalization for the first time, signaling strong bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market. Industry analysts view this milestone as a positive indicator of growing demand for converting fiat currencies into digital assets. Tether’s rise to an all-time high suggests increasing liquidity in the crypto market, which is often seen as a precursor to a bull market. Stablecoins like Tether play a critical role in facilitating the exchange between traditional currencies and virtual assets, and their growth is typically associated with expanding market activity.

**6. Major economic events**

**Major economic events last week**

Last week, global inflation expectations shifted as the Eurozone’s consumer price index came in lower than expected, raising hopes that inflation could be contained. However, in contrast, U.S. inflation indicators exceeded forecasts, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a corresponding increase in the U.S. Dollar Index. As a result, the U.S. stock market struggled to reach new all-time highs, showing a slight pullback, while global gold prices surged to new record levels, reflecting a preference for safe-haven assets.

![Major Economic Events for the 3rd week of October 2024 (Investing.com)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*F9FxUJ4WCBXWQDZg.png)

**This week’s major economic events**

This week, the U.S. is set to release key economic data, including new unemployment claims and inflation-related indicators such as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). If these inflation figures come in higher than expected, this could negatively impact asset markets, including virtual assets, as expectations for interest rate cuts would likely diminish.

![Major Economic Events for the 4th week of October 2024 (Investing.com)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*IYpFAoJjSHHEP6sF.png)

**Summary**

**Positive Indicators:**

* Inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs

* Gold price surge

* MVRV Z-Score

* aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio)

**Negative Indicators:**

* Rising U.S. Treasury yields

* Strengthening U.S. Dollar Index

* Record-high open interest in Bitcoin futures

* Increasing estimated leverage ratio

* Decline in whale wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC

**Overall Outlook:**

Following Bitcoin’s recent rise, there has been a sharp increase in long positions, signaling the need for some market consolidation. Open interest in Bitcoin futures has reached an all-time high, raising the likelihood of a correction. Historically, whenever open interest surpassed $19 billion, it would often be followed by significant market pullbacks. While it’s possible that this could mark the end of the current rally, several factors suggest otherwise. The ample supply of stablecoins, along with stable MVRV Z-Score levels and other non-overheated indicators, imply that the bull market may not be over. The most probable scenario is a partial resolution of the elevated open interest, followed by a renewed upward trend.

Record open interest; further increase expected after long positions are resolved — 4th week of October 2024

League of Traders EN

Record open interest; further increase expected after long positions are resolved — 4th week of October 2024.  The Weekly Report is our summary of key...