![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/1*4h7oUQnhMZouGzNEDL9YKw.png)

The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official [League of Traders Telegram channel](https://t.me/leagueoftraders_official).

Here are our notes for the third week of January!

 1. **Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart**

Bitcoin corrected from $99,220 last week to $94,212 this week. The downtrend continued following significant outflows from BlackRock’s Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT). Although some funds re-entered, further outflows were observed last Friday. With rising U.S. interest rates and a lack of strong bullish catalysts for Bitcoin spot ETFs, maintaining a cautious approach is advised.

![BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*Ko7f3DSRHTOqKecX.png)

![Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The block)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*NLB25-JJNVDGYcLE.png)

Ethereum dropped from $3,675 last week to $3,260 this week. Persistent outflows from Ethereum spot ETFs have contributed to the negative trend. If these ETF outflows persist this week, Ethereum is likely to remain under pressure.

![ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*va4u5SHscFoCpBaf.png)

![Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The block)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*0iACxMFEyOpAYD88.png)

Bitcoin dominance rose from 56.99% last week to 58.06% this week. The preference for Bitcoin, often viewed as a safer asset, has increased amid rising U.S. interest rates and market uncertainty. Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is likely to continue in the near term under these conditions.

![Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*YO89YQcg6CLfhINF.png)

**2. Major Economic Indicators**

* US Bond Yields

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.624% last week to 4.763% this week, marking an 8-month high. Concerns about a slower pace of rate cuts, highlighted in the latest FOMC minutes, are the primary drivers. As U.S. employment metrics remain robust, some policymakers suggest considering rate hikes rather than cuts. Monitoring the 10-year Treasury yield closely is essential, as it could signify a critical inflection point for global asset markets.

![US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*OYSrSCvgGZLBE-wN.png)

* US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index increased from 108.858 last week to 109.688, driven by rising Treasury yields. Strong dollar trends may persist until President Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

![US Dollar Index (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*PLbl13GkIQOqDO3_.png)

* US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The US100 index dropped from 21,319 last week to 20,768 this week, reflecting a correction influenced by rising interest rates. While a strong dollar absorbs foreign investment demand, excessively high rates could dampen market activity.

![US100 (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*DJQVrdXOSeVDRfpj.png)

* Gold Futures

Gold futures rose from $2,642 per ounce last week to $2,687 this week, despite rising interest rates and a stronger dollar. Risk-averse sentiment stemming from political transitions and inflation concerns has supported gold prices. Bitcoin, often seen as “digital gold,” could benefit similarly in the near term.

![Gold Futures (TradingView)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*u3yS2utkUSzo8MB4.png)

**3. Bitcoin Market Data**

* MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z-Score fell from 2.91 last week to 2.66, remaining below the overheating threshold of 3. A significant breakout beyond this level could indicate a new all-time high for Bitcoin.

* Indicator explanation: The MVRV Z-score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and its realized value, divided by the standard deviation. It serves as an indicator to assess whether Bitcoin’s market capitalization is overvalued or undervalued. A score below 0 suggests that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued, while a score of 6 or higher, as seen during the all-time high (ATH) in 2021, indicates an overheated market.

![Bitcoin: MVRV Z Score (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*pr7WjChWqUA4lv5c.png)

* aSOPR

The aSOPR indicator declined from 1.016 to 1.013, with the daily aSOPR dropping below 1 for the first time since October last year. This signals potential downside risks.

* SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, is calculated by dividing the price at which Bitcoin was previously received by the price at the time of transfer. A SOPR below 1 indicates a bearish market, while a value above 1 indicates a bullish market. The aSOPR is an adjusted version that excludes short-term transactions (within one hour), providing a more accurate representation.

![Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*0xEDLMW2DSrdyU-M.png)

* Open Interest

Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures decreased from $28.01B last week to $27.10B this week but remains elevated. Meanwhile, the estimated leverage ratio increased from 0.216 to 0.219, indicating some capital outflows from perpetual futures markets, which could be seen as a bearish signal.

![Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*P1ZLzDGYVj74wBk3.png)

![Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*8BgegUi3WCwzXPLV.png)

**4. On-chain data**

* Exchange inflows and outflows

Bitcoin’s net outflows from exchanges continued, with a slight increase compared to last week. Sustained outflows could indicate an increase in long-term holdings. If institutional holdings are sold via OTC markets, retail investors may face less price pressure.

![Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change(Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*-0_uC3RAkyG0_EU7.png)

* Number of Whale Wallets

The number of wallets holding 10K+ BTC remains stable, but those with 1K+ BTC have resumed their downtrend. The 1K+ wallet count is nearing its lowest level since February, signaling a potentially cautious phase.

![Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*h6ZdbdwFOsSjqtge.png)

![Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1K or more (Glassnode)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*8dHFmTMbiczT5oEW.png)

**5. Last Week’s Major News**

* **Top 5 Crypto Metrics to Watch in 2025 — a16z Crypto**

Daren Matsuoka from Andreessen Horowitz Crypto (a16z crypto) highlighted five key metrics to monitor this year: monthly active mobile wallet users, adjusted stablecoin trading volume, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF net inflows, the spot trading volume ratio between decentralized exchanges (DEX) and centralized exchanges (CEX), and total transaction fees (block space demand).

* **Jensen Huang: “20 Years Needed for Quantum Computing Commercialization” — Related Stocks Decline**

Quantum computing-related stocks, which had been rallying recently, faced a sharp decline after Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, stated that the commercialization of quantum computing could take decades.

* **Top 3 DeFi Trends for 2025**

According to Tim Craig, co-founder of Taiko, the decentralized finance (DeFi) market in 2025 is expected to be shaped by three major trends: the on-chain transition of traditional financial institutions, the adoption of dedicated blockchains by DeFi protocols, and integration with fintech applications.

**6. Major economic events**

* Major economic events last week

Last week, various employment-related indicators were released in the United States. Initial jobless claims came in at 201K, falling short of the forecasted 214K, while the nonfarm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations, recording 256K compared to the projected 164K. These figures suggest that the U.S. is effectively at full employment, further exacerbating concerns about inflation. Against this backdrop, U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply, which had a broadly negative impact on asset markets.

![Major Economic Events for the 2nd week of January 2025 (Investing.com)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*4H9PkHyV4ZTMJZp_.png)

**This week’s major economic events**

The primary focus for U.S. markets this week is the December Consumer Price Index (CPI), a critical macroeconomic indicator for assessing progress toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. If inflation remains stubborn, the Fed might not only halt rate-cutting cycles but also consider additional rate hikes. Market sentiment is expected to remain cautious.

![Major Economic Events for the 3rd week of January 2025 (Investing.com)](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*GpI7D20NWOJIyjS1.png)

**Summary**

* **Positive Signals:** Gold futures, exchange outflows.

* **Negative Signals:** Outflows from crypto spot ETFs, U.S. bond yields, U.S. Dollar Index, aSOPR, whale wallet count.

**Overall Assessment:** The growing inflation concerns in the U.S. have resulted in a predominantly negative macroeconomic outlook. Risks from open interest in the crypto market remain elevated.

While medium-to-long-term signals for Bitcoin, such as rising gold prices and declining exchange reserves, appear favorable, short-term indicators remain weak. A neutral stance is advisable, with strategies such as buying during oversold conditions or hedging during temporary rallies.

U.S. Inflation Concerns Grow: Favorable for Bitcoin in the Long Term, but Heightened Short-Term Risks — 3rd week of January 2025

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U.S. Inflation Concerns Grow: Favorable for Bitcoin in the Long Term, but Heightened Short-Term Risks — 3rd week of January 2025.  The Weekly Report i...