The Weekly Report is our summary of key indicators and recent events in the crypto world that professional traders are closely monitoring. This report and other relevant information are first shared via the official League of Traders Telegram channel.

Here are our notes for the second week of June!

1. Bitcoin Chart/Ethereum Chart

This week, the Bitcoin market has maintained its mid-to-long-term bullish trend, briefly surpassing $110,000 after a correction following last month’s all-time high. The current price is finding support around the 7-day and 25-day moving averages, attempting a rebound and technically laying the groundwork for a short-term upward reversal. Bitcoin spot ETF flows indicate sustained institutional demand, but recent outflows suggest caution for short-term momentum slowdown. Trading volume is lower than during past surges, but consistent dispersed buying pressure is a positive signal. Overall, Bitcoin is consolidating in the $108,000–$111,000 range, preparing for another attempt at new highs, with a breakout above the upper range likely to resume the all-time high trend.

BTCUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (The block)

The Ethereum market is forming a consolidation range amid a bearish trend. The price has repeatedly failed to break above last May’s high of $2,788, oscillating between declines and rebounds, and is currently testing support around the 7-day and 25-day moving averages. Trading volume has decreased compared to the previous surge, with the market driven by short-term trading rather than significant new capital inflows. Ethereum spot ETF flows have continued, maintaining a stable long-term demand base, but the overall scale remains modest compared to Bitcoin ETFs. Technically, Ethereum is searching for direction in the $2,500–$2,700 range, with its trend likely to remain correlated with Bitcoin in the near term.

ETHUSDT Chart (Binance)

Spot Ethereum ETF flows (The block)

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is consolidating in the mid-64% range, failing to break above last month’s yearly high of approximately 65%, indicating a stagnant phase. The relative strength of Bitcoin since early 2025 remains intact, but recent recovery in altcoins, particularly Ethereum, and ETF-related inflows are limiting dominance growth. The chart shows an ongoing uptrend, but short-term momentum has weakened. While Bitcoin continues to lead the market, further upside will require a recovery in risk-on sentiment to drive broader market participation.

Bitcoin dominance chart (CoinMarketCap)

2. Major Economic Indicators

• US Bond Yields

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.48%, continuing its overall bullish trend. This is attributed to stronger-than-expected employment data, which has tempered expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Metrics such as ADP employment, non-farm payrolls, and average wages suggest both economic resilience and inflationary pressures, prompting renewed selling in the bond market. Technically, the yield maintains an uptrend from May’s low, testing resistance around 4.50%. This signals a resurgence of risk-averse sentiment in traditional assets, which may create a neutral-to-slightly negative environment for the crypto market.

US10YPrice Government Bond Rate (TradingView)

• US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuated around 99.2, continuing a limited consolidation range. Despite attempting a rebound driven by strong employment data last week, its failure to decisively break above 100 reflects a lack of market conviction in sustained dollar strength. The broader trend suggests a mid-term decline with constrained short-term rebounds, which could benefit risk assets. However, the dollar’s sharp weakening is limited, and the forex market is expected to remain sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy direction and U.S. economic data.

US Dollar Index (TradingView)

• US100 (Nasdaq 100)

The US100 (Nasdaq 100 index) continues its strong uptrend, approaching an all-time high, driven by robust buying in tech stocks. Expectations of solid earnings from AI, semiconductor, and cloud sectors, combined with recent U.S. employment data and the ISM services index, reinforce confidence in a soft economic landing, supporting tech stock sentiment. While concerns about overbought conditions exist, the absence of significant profit-taking sustains the uptrend, and a risk-on environment is likely to persist as long as this holds.

US100 (TradingView)

• Gold Futures

Gold prices are consolidating around $3,300, maintaining a short-term range-bound trend. After failing to break the $3,400 resistance, profit-taking and rising U.S. Treasury yields have prevented a strong trend, but the broader uptrend remains intact. Gold continues to see mid-term buying support due to global geopolitical uncertainties, U.S. election risks, and expectations of Federal Reserve monetary easing. As long as the key support level of $3,250 holds, downside risks are limited. A recovery in gold ETF inflows and physical demand could drive another attempt at breaking previous highs.

Gold Futures (TradingView)

3. Bitcoin Market Data

• MVRV Z-score

Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score has rebounded from last week, indicating easing profit-taking pressure and signs of market reevaluation. The Z-Score has recovered to around 2.5, suggesting an above-average valuation but not an overheated phase. With prices stabilizing above $100,000, the sustained uptrend despite past high resistance is positive. The gradual rise in the Z-Score without sharp spikes indicates steady capital inflows, supporting the mid-term bullish trend.

Indicator Explanation: The MVRV Z-Score measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market cap and realized cap, divided by standard deviation, offering insight into whether Bitcoin is over- or undervalued. A score below 0 indicates significant undervaluation, while the overheated zone during the 2021 all-time high exceeded 6.

Bitcoin: MVRV Z-Score (Glassnode)

• aSOPR

Bitcoin’s Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) generally moves above 1.0, indicating that market participants are transacting at a profit. This reflects positive investor sentiment and sustained confidence without significant forced selling. The aSOPR’s rebound without dipping below 1 during price corrections supports the structural bullish trend. The current phase is characterized by holding or re-buying rather than profit-taking.

Indicator Explanation: SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) divides the price of Bitcoin at the time of spending by its price when received. A value below 1 suggests a bear market, while above 1 indicates a bull market. aSOPR refines this by filtering out insignificant transactions within an hour, providing a more precise metric.

Adjusted SOPR (Glassnode)

• Open Interest

Bitcoin futures open interest has steadily increased, reflecting sustained market interest and capital inflows. This suggests investors maintain expectations of future price rises. Concurrently, the estimated leverage ratio is rising, indicating growing leverage utilization. The expansion of open interest and gradual leverage increase contribute positive momentum to Bitcoin’s price uptrend. However, caution is needed regarding rapid increases in open interest.

Outstanding Open Interests by Exchanges (Glassnode)

Exchanges’ combined estimated leverage ratio (Glassnode)

4. On-chain data

• Exchange inflows and outflows

Bitcoin’s net exchange position change shows a continued net outflow trend, reflecting bullish market sentiment. Over 50,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges since late last week, likely indicating long-term holding in cold wallets or institutional buying. Combined with the price trend, these outflows suggest reduced selling pressure and improved supply-demand dynamics, supporting a positive outlook. Sustained net outflows are a structural on-chain indicator backing mid-to-long-term uptrends, implying potential for a rebound after corrections.

Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change (Glassnode)

• Number of Whale Wallets

Recent weekly changes in Bitcoin whale wallets vary by holding size. The number of ultra-large whale wallets holding 10,000+ BTC remains stagnant at around 95–96, showing no significant increase despite the broader market rebound. Conversely, wallets holding 1,000+ BTC have recovered since late May, surpassing 2,100, but have slightly slowed recently. This indicates that mid-to-large investors are driving buying, while large institutional accumulation remains subdued. A robust trend reversal requires a clear recovery in 10,000+ BTC wallets.

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 10K or more (Glassnode)

Number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1K or more (Glassnode)

5. Last Week’s Major News

Circle’s Successful IPO Draws Market Attention Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, saw its stock price surge 168% on its first day of trading on the New York Stock Exchange, marking a successful IPO. This values Circle at approximately $18.3 billion, making it the second-largest listing in the crypto industry. The IPO’s success signals strong investor interest and confidence in crypto firms.

Bitcoin Breaks $110,000, Sustaining Bullish Trend Bitcoin surpassed $110,000, achieving a 58% annual gain. ARK Invest’s CEO Cathie Wood predicts Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million by 2030, while Fundstrat’s Tom Lee forecasts $150,000 by year-end and $3 million long-term. These optimistic projections are driven by sustained institutional inflows and Bitcoin’s growing appeal as an asset.

Japan’s Metaplanet Announces Large-Scale Bitcoin Purchase Plan Japanese hotel developer Metaplanet announced plans to hold 210,000 Bitcoin by 2027, equivalent to about 1% of the total Bitcoin supply, valued at roughly $22 billion at current prices. This strategic shift is expected to make Metaplanet the world’s second-largest corporate Bitcoin holder.

6. Major economic events

Major economic events last week

Last week’s data, centered on strong employment and wage growth, reinforced the likelihood of delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts. This may create short-term correction pressure on risk assets, with market expectations for a shift in Fed stance somewhat diminished. However, a services sector rebound and sustained consumer strength support the possibility of a soft economic landing. Inflation metrics have risen, but recession concerns have eased.

Major Economic Events for the 1st week of June 2025 (Investing.com)

This week’s major economic events

This week’s data could heighten concerns about sustained hawkish Fed policy if inflationary pressures and robust employment are confirmed, potentially acting as a short-term headwind for risk assets. The ability of Bitcoin, Nasdaq, and other major asset classes to break through the upper consolidation range may hinge on these data releases. Strategies should account for heightened volatility around announcement times.

Major Economic Events for the 2nd week of June 2025 (Investing.com)

Summary

Positive Indicators: US100, MVRV Z-Score rebound, sustained aSOPR, ongoing exchange outflow trend.

Negative Indicators: Bitcoin dominance, U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, rising perpetual futures open interest.

Overall Assessment: The crypto market maintains a broadly bullish trend this week, with short-term caution warranted. The US100’s rise, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score rebound, stable aSOPR, and sustained exchange outflows reflect robust investor sentiment. However, stagnant Bitcoin dominance, rising U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, and surging perpetual futures open interest raise concerns about overheating and volatility. While the mid-to-long-term bullish trend persists, a cautious approach is necessary in the short term.